Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his mandate but not, so far, power. While final votes are still being tallied, most voters picked his opponents on Tuesday. His bloc’s share of seats remains the largest, but appears to have slumped by around 10, leaving it below the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset. Palestinian Israeli parties surged, and are projected to almost double the 10 seats they held. The result is that Mr Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the military, now faces a choice: fall into line with Mr Netanyahu’s racist fearmongering or work with Arab-led parties.
The prime minister who oversaw shocking security failures ahead of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023 still pitches himself as “Mr Security”. On trial for corruption, he has persistently attacked democratic institutions, especially the judiciary. He embraced and then indulged the ultra-right as they cheered on brutal settler violence in the occupied West Bank. (Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich lost ground in these polls, but perhaps due to their vision’s permeation of mainstream politics more than a revolt against it.) Mr Netanyahu’s war on Iran has destabilised the region. The tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by his government’s genocidal war on Gaza have barely featured in the election campaign, but its cost for Israeli hostages and international support for Israel have been noted by voters.
Mr Netanyahu relied on fear, campaigning with the slogan “the right or Palestine” and accusing Palestinian citizens of Israel, around a fifth of its population, of trying to “steal the election”. They have often boycotted their democratic right, in a system stacked against them, with politics moving rightwards. Mr Eisenkot’s bloc gives them little reason for optimism; Tuesday’s turnout testifies to their desperation to see an end to the most extreme government in Israel’s history. Millions of Palestinians living under illegal Israeli occupation got no vote at all.
Mr Netanyahu, the consummate survivor, may pin his hopes on another election. For now, as incumbent, he holds extra cards. The greatest danger is that he pushes Donald Trump into a renewed offensive on Iran after the midterms, seeing perma-war as political salvation.
Mr Eisenkot, one of many burned by their dealings with the prime minister, is unlikely to risk a “unity government”. His bloc could remove Mr Netanyahu “if it is brave enough”, observed Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List ticket of Palestinian parties. In campaigning, most opposition Israeli politicians ruled out a coalition with the Joint List or Ra’am (the United Arab List) – except on terms that they will not accept. But the Palestinian parties have made clear that they are open to cooperation and there is precedent. Mr Netanyahu himself reportedly made overtures to Ra’am in 2021; instead it joined the coalition that unseated him.
“We can no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist distinction between Jewish and Arab votes,” wrote Yair Golan, head of the centre-left Democrats – noting that Mr Netanyahu talks of a Zionist majority but relies on the support of non-Zionist Haredi parties. Mr Eisenkot may fear that supporters will not tolerate a deal but they will not thank him for failing to boot out Mr Netanyahu when given the chance. That would also allow the prime minister to turn this result into an ideological victory. Israel defines itself as Jewish and democratic. Mr Eisenkot and his partners should accept every vote and citizen as equal.
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