Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September

Prediction markets are converging on the same forecast for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting: don’t expect anything to change.

Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in September?” market puts the odds of no change at 74%, with a quarter-point hike at 25% and a cut near 1%, on $33.9 million in volume. CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi lands almost identically at 73.5%, backed by close to $10 million wagered, while Myriad, the prediction platform run by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, has “No Change” trading around 71%.

The spread across all three is tight enough to read as consensus.

Traders and investors track Fed decisions so closely because the federal funds rate ripples through nearly every corner of financial markets. The rate sets the baseline cost of borrowing money, which in turn shapes how much investors are willing to pay for riskier bets.

When the Fed hikes, borrowing gets pricier and safe assets like Treasuries offer better returns, pulling money away from speculative corners of the market. When it cuts, cheap money tends to flow back into risk assets such as tech stocks and crypto.

That dynamic has played out repeatedly this year. Bitcoin and Ethereum have wavered around recent Fed holds, and prices slid earlier in the year as a strong jobs report cast doubt on rate cuts. Traders have also been bracing for a surprise hike even with a hold as the base case.

The calm reflects the backdrop. At its July meeting, the FOMC held the rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a divided 9–3 vote, with three members pushing for a hike. A Reuters poll found nearly 70% of economists expect no change through the rest of 2026.

The FOMC meets September 15–16, with its statement due September 16.