Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
Donald Trump has insisted the overriding goal of his ill-starred war with Iran is to prevent it from gaining a nuclear weapon. Yet he has now done a deal with a rival Middle Eastern power, Saudi Arabia, that could reportedly put the kingdom on a path to enriching its own fuel for nuclear reactors. The president insisted on Thursday the deal would only proceed if Riyadh normalised relations with Israel. But suggestions from officials that it did not contain safeguards the US has traditionally required around enrichment — which can provide a route to a weapon — will be noted in Tehran, and entail worrying proliferation risks across the Middle East and beyond.
Saudi Arabia has a right to a civilian nuclear programme as part of ambitions to diversify its energy mix. The US can argue that if it didn’t supply the reactors then China or Russia, whose Rosatom is now the world’s largest exporter of nuclear power plants, could step in instead. The Trump administration says its agreement ensures that the benefits go to American business, and gives the US crucial oversight.
But Riyadh has insisted that since it has domestic uranium deposits, it should be allowed to set up the full nuclear fuel cycle — long a sticking point in US talks. The pact now agreed is said to lack key provisions the US has insisted on in deals with other partners — including a 2009 deal with the United Arab Emirates under which it agreed not to enrich uranium. Abu Dhabi also signed up to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s “additional protocol” that grants the watchdog expanded inspection rights. International officials called that accord a “gold standard”.
The deal with Riyadh was said by people close to the situation to provide for a two-year study into whether Saudi enrichment is commercially viable — though that means enrichment is not guaranteed. It is also said to include inspection rights for US teams. But these seem unlikely to be more stringent than the IAEA’s, and would be a bet on the long-term co-operation and stability of the Saudi leadership.
Trump’s presidential predecessor Joe Biden had made any nuclear agreement with Riyadh conditional on Saudi recognition of Israel. The Trump administration’s initial announcement contained no mention of Israel — the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East, though it has never confirmed or denied this. But Trump — perhaps stung by a bipartisan backlash — early on Thursday posted that the deal was “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, which sought to normalise ties between Israel and Arab states. He added there would be “no enrichment of material!” The reality is unclear.
Any negotiated US deal that lacked a requirement for the IAEA’s expanded inspection regime would set a troubling precedent that could prompt others to seek similar treatment. Russia or China might also try to conclude nuclear partnerships based on their own bilateral inspections. It also comes amid nervousness among many “middle” powers over deteriorating global security and the US commitment under Trump to protecting its allies — prompting some to consider whether they should pursue nuclear capabilities.
The US president may have wanted to seal a Saudi pact as a way of repairing relations damaged by his Iran war. But since Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been open that if Iran developed a nuclear bomb the kingdom would follow suit, the regional proliferation dangers a poorly negotiated deal could eventually pose are clear. After the expiry of the last remaining major US-Russia arms control treaty and worries over the shrinking US nuclear “umbrella”, this would be a significant further blow to the non-proliferation regime.
