Rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may already be influencing human biology. New research has identified long-term changes in blood chemistry that appear to track rising atmospheric CO2, raising concerns that an important blood marker could approach the upper end of its healthy range within the next several decades.
The findings may be particularly important for children and teenagers. Because their bodies are still developing, younger generations are expected to experience the greatest lifetime exposure to elevated atmospheric CO2.
Decades of Blood Data Reveal a Shift
In a study published in Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, scientists from The Kids Research Institute Australia, Curtin University and The Australian National University (ANU) examined more than 20 years of U.S. population health data. They found persistent changes in several measures of blood chemistry that closely followed the upward trend in atmospheric CO2.
The researchers used information from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), analyzing blood test results from roughly 7,000 people at two-year intervals between 1999 and 2020.
Since 1999, average serum bicarbonate levels have increased by about 7 percent. Bicarbonate is a blood marker closely associated with carbon dioxide in the body. During the same period, average levels of calcium and phosphorus decreased.
Those biological trends occurred as atmospheric CO2 climbed from about 369 parts per million (ppm) in 2000 to more than 420 ppm today.
Study author Associate Professor Alexander Larcombe said the results indicate that the body may already be adjusting to changes in the composition of the atmosphere.
“What we’re seeing is a gradual shift in blood chemistry that mirrors the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, which is driving climate change,” A/Prof Larcombe said.
How the Body Responds to More CO2
Bicarbonate is essential for regulating the body’s acid-base balance. As CO2 increases, the body can retain additional bicarbonate to help keep blood pH stable. Although this response helps preserve that balance, maintaining it over long periods could have physiological effects.
“If current trends continue, modeling indicates average bicarbonate levels could approach the upper limit of today’s accepted healthy range within 50 years,” A/Prof Larcombe said
“Calcium and phosphorus levels could also reach the lower end of their healthy ranges later this century.”
Humans evolved when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 280 to 300 ppm. During the past decade, atmospheric levels have risen by an average of about 2.6 ppm each year, while 2024 alone saw an increase of 3.5 ppm.
Fellow Author Dr Phil Bierwirth, a retired environmental geoscientist affiliated with the ANU Emeritus Faculty, emphasized that the study does not establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship. However, he said the consistency of the changes across a large population warrants attention.
“I actually think that what we are seeing is because our bodies are not adapting,” Dr Bierwirth said.
“It appears we are adapted to a range of CO2 in the air that may now have been surpassed.
“The normal range maintains a delicate balance between how much CO2 is in the air, our blood pH, our breathing rate and bicarbonate levels in the blood.
“As CO2 in the air is now higher than humans have ever experienced, it appears to be building up in our bodies. Maybe we can never adapt such that it is vitally important to limit atmospheric levels of CO2.”
A Potential New Dimension of Climate Risk
The researchers say the results suggest that rising atmospheric CO2 could represent a form of climate-related risk that is different from more familiar threats such as heatwaves, extreme weather and sea-level rise.
According to A/Prof Larcombe, increasing CO2 may need to be considered not only as an environmental concern, but also as a long-term public health factor that should be monitored.
“We’re not saying people are suddenly going to become unwell when we cross a certain threshold,” he said.
“But this suggests there may be gradual physiological changes occurring at a population level, and that’s something we should be monitoring as part of future climate change policy.”
The researchers recommend monitoring the composition of the atmosphere together with biological markers across populations. Tracking both alongside established climate indicators could help scientists determine how slow environmental changes affect human biology over periods of decades.
CO2 Reduction Could Have Health Implications
Cutting CO2 emissions remains essential for limiting global warming. The findings also raise the possibility that lowering emissions could have an additional role in protecting long-term human health.
The researchers argue that potential physiological effects from rising CO2 should therefore be considered in future discussions about climate policy, alongside its established environmental consequences.
Associate Professor Larcombe is part of the Wal-yan Respiratory Research Centre, a partnership between The Kids Research Institute Australia, Perth Children’s Hospital and Perth Children’s Hospital Foundation.
