The Federal Reserve’s struggle to manage a soft landing, where inflation falls without triggering a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, will influence markets this week, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes offering a closer look at whether the central bank is considering additional interest-rate increases.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he sees just a 25% chance of a Fed hike in September. Rather, he expects the first move in December, even as he forecasts inflation rising again in early 2027.
Geopolitical developments will also need to be monitored, given their strong influence on volatility expectations and the price of oil.
Higher interest rates make risky assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive.
Within crypto, European Union operators face a Sunday deadline to stop transactions with 14 named crypto platforms, marking the week’s clearest regulatory milestone.
What to Watch
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- Aug. 18: Coinbase and Circle’s USDC collaboration agreement, which governs their revenue-sharing economics, enters its first three-year renewal term.
- Aug. 23: The EU’s ban on transactions with 14 named crypto-asset service platforms becomes applicable.
- Macro
- Aug. 17, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Consumer Price Index YoY for July est. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
- Aug. 18, 9:15 a.m.: U.S. Industrial Production MoM for July est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Aug. 19, 2 a.m.: U.K. Headline CPI YoY for July est. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%); Core YoY (Prev. 2.6%)
- Aug. 19, 5 a.m.: Euro area headline inflation YoY (final) for July est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%); Core YoY est. 2.5% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Aug. 19, 2 p.m.: U.S. FOMC Minutes from the July 28–29 meeting
- Aug. 20, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Aug. 15 est. 201K (Prev. 209K)
- Aug. 20, 7:30 p.m.: Japan Headline CPI YoY for July (Prev. 1.7%); Core CPI YoY est. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Aug. 21, 2 a.m.: U.K. Retail Sales MoM for July (Prev. 1.0%)
- Aug. 21, 4 a.m.: Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for August est. 51.6 (Prev. 52.0)
- Aug. 21, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for August est. 53.2 (Prev. 54.5)
- Earnings
- Aug. 17: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
- Aug. 18: Canaan (CAN), pre-market, -$0.14
- Aug. 18: BTCS Inc (BTCS), post-market
Token Events
- Governance Votes & Calls
- Compound is voting to cut rates on deprecated markets to zero (Prop 595) and apply L2 security upgrades (Prop 596). Voting ends Aug. 16.
- Frax Finance is voting on FIP-450 and FIP-451 to add Gearbox and Royco yield strategies to sfrxUSD through Aug. 17.
- ShapeShift DAO is voting to move its rFOX staking program from Arbitrum to Ethereum Mainnet on Oct. 1, temporarily doubling revenue-share rewards to 50% for three months to incentivize migration. Voting ends Aug. 18.
- Rocket Pool is voting to replace Snapshot with RocketDash as its official offchain signaling platform to reduce costs. Voting ends Aug. 19.
- GnosisDAO is voting to transition Gnosis Chain from a standalone layer 1 into an Ethereum-settled rollup with synchronous mainnet composability, with voting ending on Aug. 19.
- Decentraland DAO is voting on establishing a clear governance framework and appeal process for platform-wide bans. Voting ends Aug. 19.
- THORSwap is voting on TIP-19 to migrate THOR tokens 1:1 to METRO on Ethereum mainnet. Voting ends Aug. 22.
- Unlocks
- Aug. 17: Aster to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $28.3 million.
- Aug. 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 4.1% of its circulating supply worth $40 million.
- Aug. 20: LayerZero to unlock 4.5% of its circulating supply worth $24.8 million.
- Aug. 20: Kaito to unlock 6.2% of its circulating supply worth $11.7 million.
- Aug. 21: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $23.1 million.
- Aug. 21: Morpho to unlock 3.9% of its circulating supply worth $22.7 million.
- Aug. 21: Akedo Games (AKE) to unlock 4.9% of its circulating supply worth $14.1 million.
- Token Launches
