Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we’re back at full strength after our vacations to unpack the seismic U.S. midterm election results.
Here’s what’s on tap for the day: U.S. foes react to the GOP’s midterm wipeout, Ukrainians express hope over the results, and how Democrats plan to challenge Trump’s foreign policy in a new Congress.
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we’re back at full strength after our vacations to unpack the seismic U.S. midterm election results.
Here’s what’s on tap for the day: U.S. foes react to the GOP’s midterm wipeout, Ukrainians express hope over the results, and how Democrats plan to challenge Trump’s foreign policy in a new Congress.
Top U.S. adversaries are trying to read the tea leaves on what the Republican Party’s shellacking in the 2026 midterms means for U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy moving forward.
Starting in January, congressional Democrats will have powerful tools to constrain Trump—and they’ve pledged to challenge him on issues ranging from the Iran war to Ukraine. But the U.S. president will still have immense authority over foreign-policy and national security decisions.
Along these lines, here’s how Iran, Russia, and China are interpreting the results so far.
Tehran gloats. Iran framed the historic GOP defeat as American voters rejecting Trump’s war against the country. “Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message,” Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote in a post on X.
He’s right. As even U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance noted, the Iran war’s economic impact played a significant role in turning voters against Republicans nationwide.
Yet Tehran also doesn’t appear to anticipate any major shifts in U.S. policy toward Iran despite the fact that Democrats will soon control Congress. “If there are still those who entertain the slightest hope that the hegemonic system may change behavior or shifts in its political parties may bring about change, or that by making concessions to the US, they can persuade it to abandon its hostility, they’re gravely mistaken,,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei wrote in a post on X.
Though the U.S. carried out limited strikes on Iran in the days leading up to the midterms, Trump had pledged no major escalation until after the vote. International mediators such as Qatar have recently sought to rekindle diplomatic discussions between Tehran and Washington in the hope of reaching a deal and preventing another round of heavy fighting. Trump is now pondering his legacy, and it’s still unclear whether he’ll move to cut his losses and end the war or try to save face with a fresh military operation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is also facing a possible loss of power following national elections in his country, has reportedly been pressing Trump to return to war. But a majority of Americans now view the Israeli government unfavorably, and there’s growing bipartisan support for reassessing Washington’s ties with the country—all of which could factor into Trump’s next move regarding Iran.
An optimistic Kremlin. The midterms took place amid renewed efforts by the Trump administration to push for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. The United States is poised to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi next week.
Trump has faced bipartisan criticism in Washington for his handling of this process, as the president has once again soured on continued support for Kyiv while moving to reduce financial constraints on Moscow. Though a Democratic-led Congress is poised to push for stronger U.S. backing for Ukraine, the Kremlin appears hopeful that Trump will continue with his recent approach to peace negotiations and relations with Russia.
“President Trump remains in office. We sincerely hope that he will continue his peacemaking efforts. There is already some groundwork in place. Another round of trilateral talks is coming up very soon. These include successful peacemaking and humanitarian initiatives. We hope that all of this will continue. Ultimately, this is an internal American matter,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told a Russian journalist regarding the midterm results.
China shrugs. Washington’s biggest economic and military rival is doing little to reveal its true feelings about the midterm power shift ahead of a prospective meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shenzhen later this month. Asked about the election results on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, Chinese foreign ministry spokespersons Mao Ning and Guo Jiakun had identical answers: “The U.S. midterm elections are a domestic affair. China stands ready to continue working with the U.S. to uphold and deliver on the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state, enhance communication, properly manage differences, expand cooperation, and build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of respect, fairness, and reciprocity.”
Even the opinion page of the state-run Global Times newspaper, usually a reliable source of hot takes on U.S. politics and policy, has been conspicuously silent on the midterms save for one editorial that took a gratuitous swipe at Europe.
Trump’s desire for a meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un could also be impacted by the U.S. leader’s diminished political standing. North Korea conducted yet another series of missile tests the day after the midterms and appears uninterested in a possible meeting in Shenzhen between Trump and Kim, with Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong slamming the United States as “hostile” and “unreasonable” in a statement on Wednesday and adding that North Korea had “no need to sit face-to-face” with Trump.
The midterm results—and the major role that the Iran war played in the election—have raised questions over whether Trump will move to oust Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Recent reports have suggested that Trump is asking political allies about this and considering making Hegseth the fall guy for failures in the war. Publicly, though, Trump continues to stand behind the Pentagon chief.
“I have every intention to keep him,” Trump said of Hegseth on Thursday. But the president also said he’s been receiving calls from people who are unhappy with Hegseth and doesn’t “understand why.”
But there are growing signs that Hegseth could soon face a House impeachment vote.
Meanwhile, former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who stepped down in September—reportedly over disagreements with Hegseth—has joined the tech giant OpenAI as senior counselor for national security modernization.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Ukraine’s cautious optimism. FP’s Sam Skove is reporting on the ground in Ukraine right now, where he spoke with Ukrainians about the U.S. midterm results. They expressed hope that Kyiv will receive more support from the United States with Democrats in control of Congress—but with winter on the horizon, they also have larger concerns closer to home. Read the full piece from Sam and FP’s Christina Lu here.
Democrats’ next moves. When the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, it won’t just be the Iran war that Democrats want to take action on. FP’s staff wrote a breakdown of the top foreign-policy priorities for Democrats after the midterms. Read it here.
Riot police stand guard in front of the National Congress of Paraguay during an extraordinary session to decide on the possible impeachment of President Santiago Peña in Asunción on Nov. 5. Peña resigned on Thursday. Daniel Duarte/AFP via Getty Images
Monday, Nov. 9: The U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP31) begins in Turkey.
The U.S. House and Senate reconvene for the first time since the midterm elections.
Tuesday, Nov. 10: Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are scheduled to conduct trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi.
Wednesday, Nov. 11: Deadline for Israeli President Isaac Herzog to nominate a candidate to form the next government.
41—the number of local ballot measures seeking restrictions on data centers in the midterm elections. All but one of them passed, as Rishi and Christina reported.
“J.D. Habibi. There is this delicious irony in the fact that you’re constitutionally obligated to swear me in in January.”
—Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed with a dig at Vance in his victory speech on Tuesday.
