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Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union is set to suffer heavy losses in regional elections in two states amid surges in support for the far right and far left, according to exit polls.
The German chancellor’s party was expected to secure only 5 to 5.5 per cent of the vote in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, just above the 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation, according to estimates by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF on Sunday. The CDU had secured 13 per cent in the 2021 elections.
The results, if confirmed, would be the CDU’s lowest in any state elections in Germany’s postwar history. “This is a disaster,” Merz said on Sunday.
The governing Social Democrats were on course to come second with 35.5-36.5 per cent in the former communist state, compared with 39.6 per cent in 2021. The far-right AfD was expected to more than double its tally to 37-38 per cent, from 17 per cent.
In the city-state of Berlin, the CDU was projected to be relegated to second place with 20 per cent, down from 28.2 per cent in the previous 2023 election.
The hard-left Die Linke party — which has vowed to expropriate property from corporate landlords in the capital — is expected to surge to first place in the capital with an estimated 24.5-26 per cent.
The party, which has also harnessed alarm about the surge of the far right, was set to more than double its result from the 12 per cent it secured in 2023.
The AfD was forecast to come third in Berlin with an estimated 13.5-16 per cent, up from 9 per cent previously.
The losses for Merz’s party come two weeks after the AfD’s shock victory in elections in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right party is now trying to form its first regional government.
The electoral setbacks could embolden CDU critics blaming the chancellor’s low personal ratings and seeking a change at the top.
Merz has vowed to press ahead with welfare reforms, upgrade the country’s armed forces and modernise its ageing infrastructure.
But some CDU insiders told the FT that falling below the 5 per cent threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s parliament could trigger a full-blown leadership crisis.
A change in chancellor only 16 months into his four-year term would herald a period of instability with repercussions across the EU, Nato and Ukraine.
