Under the triple lock system, the state pension increases each April in line with whichever of three measures is the highest:
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inflation in the September of the previous year, using a measure called the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
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the average increase in total wages, including bonuses, across the UK for May to July of the previous year
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or 2.5%
The rise in wages of 3.9% is likely to determine the April 2027 state pension increase.
The triple lock was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010.
It was designed to ensure the value of the state pension wasn’t overtaken by the increase in the cost of living or the incomes of working people.
The Labour government has previously said it would keep the triple lock until the end of the current Parliament.
But since that commitment, there has been intense debate over the cost of the triple lock and whether it is justified.
In July 2025, the government’s official forecaster said the cost of the triple lock guarantee was set to be three times higher by the end of the decade than was originally anticipated when it began.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the annual cost is set to reach £15.5bn by 2030.
It said the cost of the state pension has risen steadily over the past eight decades, and now equates to £138bn, or around half the total amount the government spent on benefits.
In July, the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank suggested that the triple lock should be scrapped as part of a wider pensions overhaul.
There is now speculation that the government is considering ending the triple lock after the next general election as a way to fund a new social care plan.
