Poland has heightened its air defence posture, following repeated alleged incursions into its airspace in recent weeks.
The Polish Air Force launched preventive air patrols on September 17 aimed at securing the eastern part of Polish airspace.
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Warsaw officially blamed Russia, but Moscow has denied allegations that it is targeting NATO nations.
“Following the latest Russian provocations and acts of aggression, I have made the decision to expand the protection of our airspace. We are increasing the activity of our air forces, including F-16 aircraft and helicopters,” wrote Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on social media.
Those patrols came with a political warning.
“I want to present to the public the most probable scenario for the next few months, because it is a scenario that assumes serious events and requires focus, seriousness and the mental readiness to pass difficult exams,” said Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
“According to intelligence, the Russian plan also includes hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,” he said in parliament. “These possibilities have been mentioned for a long time, and today the information is very consistent and, unfortunately, convincing.”
He said the aim of suspected Russian incursions was “to weaken the motivation of NATO countries to apply NATO regulations in the event of aggression against any member state”.
Days later, on September 23, Poland said an Mi-8 helicopter entered Polish airspace from Kaliningrad for 42 seconds.
“Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defence,” said Poland’s Armed Forces Operational Command.
The most serious Polish claim of a violation was by a Russian Su-24 reconnaissance aircraft in the Baltic Sea in February 2025, an incident Russia reportedly acknowledged.
During the past week, suspected Russian drones were shot down twice in Moldova, and once in Romania on September 24, observers said.
Poland and Romania are two NATO members immediately bordering Ukraine through which military supplies and Western officials have reached Ukraine. Hungary is also a NATO member bordering Ukraine, but has not allowed military supplies through its territory.
The latest alleged airspace violations have again raised the spectre of an open Russian attack on NATO territory, a prospect European intelligence chiefs have been warning about since January 2024.
Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka this week told The Guardian that a Russian attack, which “could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign”, might come in a matter of “months, not years”.
Russian information, and reality
During the past week, Russian officials made claims to have captured towns in the eastern Ukrainian Donetsk region.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on September 19 Moscow’s forces had seized 5,300 square kilometres (2,050 square miles) and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026.
Moscow launched drone strikes against Ukrainian cities every night of the week, and combined them with missiles on September 19, 22 and 24, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens. One of those deaths was a cleric at a monastery in Kherson. Two were killed when Russia launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, including a maternity clinic.
“Since the beginning of this year, Russia has used more than 2,100 missiles of various types against Ukraine. More than 950 of these were ballistic missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the United Nations General Assembly. During the same period, Russia launched 63,000 drones into the country, he said.
“We need to slow it down before we move to the next stage,” he said. “Because next year, there is a real possibility that AI – not just humans – will begin to decide what happens on the battlefield.”
According to the Institute for the Study of War, which assesses territorial changes using geolocated open sources, Russian claims of a serious advance are vastly overstated.
It estimates that Russia has captured a net 147.7sq km (57sq miles) in the first eight months of 2026, its worst performance of the war by far. Ukrainian forces had liberated at least 972.56sq km (375sq miles) from Russian occupation during the same period, it has found.
Those counteroffensives have come near Oleksandrivka, straddling the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, and around the town of Lyman in northern Donetsk.
The Lyman operation, codenamed Vivaldi, saw 50sq km (20sq miles) liberated in a second phase of the operation in recent days, Ukrainian officials said.
“Artillery and drone systems targeted enemy command posts, communication hubs, logistics, crossings, and reserves. Air defence and electronic warfare systems created a protective shield over the area of combat operations. The blinded enemy was unable to decipher the plan of the operation, and our units consolidated on the liberated lines,” said an announcement from the Third Army Corps commanded by Andriy Biletsky.
Russia’s vote, a referendum on the war
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party triumphed in the Duma elections, raising its majority from 315 seats in the 450-seat body to 355.
Russian officials prejudged the result as a positive referendum on Putin’s war in Ukraine.
“I have no doubt that the result will confirm the commitment of all our parties and voters to the course the president has set both domestically and for our foreign policy,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters ahead of the election.
“We will continue to ensure support for our president’s course and bring victory over the enemies of the Fatherland closer,” deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Russian social media.
Ukraine launched its biggest combined air strike of the war on the final day of Russia’s parliamentary elections.
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on September 20 that Russian air defences downed more than 1,600 Ukrainian drones in the previous 24 hours, at least 450 of them heading for Moscow.
Some got through, putting Moscow’s oil refinery out of action for the second time this year. Videos posted online showed several fires, suggesting a number of successful strikes.
During the past week, Ukraine also struck the Kuybyshev refinery in Samara and the Bashneft refinery in Bashkortostan.
