Andy Burnham has inherited a Labour membership that is sceptical about increased welfare spending, supportive of higher defence spending, and ranks the climate crisis as one of the country’s biggest challenges, according to new polling.
The survey of 788 members between the end of June and the end of July shows them ranking health (43%), the economy (42%), cost of living (39%) and climate change (29%) as Britain’s most important issues, ahead of welfare benefits (7%) and immigration (6%).
Despite the internal rows within the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) on welfare spending and general public pushback, 47% of members surveyed by ThinkLabour believe the government is spending too much on welfare, compared with 21% who believe it does not spend enough. When asked whether they would prefer the government to fund its current welfare bill differently, 52% said taxes should be raised. Additionally, 70% of Labour members said only high earners should be taxed while 24% supported higher taxes on everyone to fund the current bill.
The survey reveals members overwhelmingly backed more spending on social care, with 73% saying the government should spend more on this through higher taxes, either on higher earners alone or through general taxation. It found 68% of members wanted Britain to spend more on defence, and among the supporters for higher defence spending, 61% backed paying for this through higher taxes.
Three-quarters of Labour’s members said they had backed Keir Starmer in the 2020 party leadership contest. The survey did not ask members about Burnham’s leadership. However, a poll conducted just before Starmer’s disastrous local elections performance revealed Burnham had a net favourability of 72% among members at that time, suggesting he would be likely to win any leadership contest he could have fought in. Burnham won the leadership unopposed within the PLP so a vote from party members was not required.
The data is likely to be watched by those in government and it is understood these findings have been shared with senior strategists in Downing Street.
ThinkLabour, formerly known as Labour Together, has become increasingly linked to Burnham’s premiership. The former CEO Alison Phillips recently left the thinktank to become the prime minister’s deputy chief of staff, alongside the former director of devolution JP Spencer, who is now working in No 10 North. Ed Owen, a former Labour adviser during the Blair administration, is the interim CEO.
Christabel Cooper, ThinkLabour’s interim director of political strategy, said: “Labour members have a tougher view on welfare than you might think. They will be aware that welfare is something the Labour government has to get right if it is going to win a second term. And they also understand the importance of defence in a deeply uncertain world.
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“That’s why it’s important to understand what members actually say rather than just rely on assumptions about what they might think.”
The survey, led by Cooper, comes after the organisation released a report titled Who is Labour For? arguing that Labour’s route back to electoral success laid in holding together voters under pressure on finances, progressive voters, and those concerned about the NHS and immigration. The report was shared with No 10 and publicly praised by the deputy Labour leader, Lucy Powell.
