What does the pledge mean?
Each April, the UK’s state pension increases by the highest of three values—2.5%, CPI inflation (in September the previous year) or average earnings growth (total pay growth, including bonuses, for May to July, compared to the same period a year before).
This mechanism was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2011 and is referred to as the ‘triple lock’. It has been in place every year aside from 2022/23, and applies to both the basic state pension and the new state pension.
The triple lock is government policy, not a legal requirement. But legislation does require both the basic and new state pension to be uprated each year by at least the growth in average earnings.
On 29 September 2026, in his first conference speech as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham said the government will “adjust” the triple lock in April 2030.
He said from April 2030 the state pension will “rise every year at least by prices or 2.5%” and that “it will hold its value relative to earnings over time”.
A Number 10 press release issued after Mr Burnham’s speech said: “The adjusted triple lock will mean the state pension continues to rise by 2.5% or inflation—whichever is higher—and by even more if that is required to maintain its value relative to earnings”.
Pensions minister Torsten Bell MP later said that the earnings aspect will be calculated as the “amount required to return or maintain value of the state pension relative to 2029/30’s record high as a share of earnings”.
(The government has said that the uprating of the state pension over this Parliament will see it reach a “record high relative to earnings”, which Mr Bell has said is set to be “somewhat over 30%” of median earnings.)
He also said the government wanted to “keep the core principles of ensuring a material rise every year, protecting against price increases, and ensuring that pensioners benefit as the economy grows—but to remove the permanent ratchet effect”.
The so-called ‘ratchet effect’ is when the state pension grows faster than average earnings over time, as there can be years where earnings growth is below inflation or 2.5%.
On 29 September 2026, Number 10 said the government “will legislate for the change during this Parliament”.
As such, this specific pledge page is monitoring whether legislation to implement this government promise has been introduced and passed, rather than if the change has come into effect. (April 2030 is after the deadline by which the next general election must be held.)
It’s worth noting that Labour’s 2024 election manifesto pledged to “retain the triple lock for the state pension”.
It didn’t specify how long this would be for, but two months before the manifesto was published, then-Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was “guaranteeing the pensions triple lock will be in the Labour manifesto and protected for the duration of the next parliament”, a timeframe which was repeated by the party.Since winning the election, ministers have referred to the promise on the triple lock as lasting for the “entirety of this Parliament”, while the 2024 Budget said it would last for “the duration of this parliament”.
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What progress has been made?
We’re currently rating this pledge as “wait and see”, as legislation to adjust the triple lock has not yet been introduced to Parliament.
The government has not yet said it plans to introduce a new standalone Bill, or if it will amend existing pensions legislation. We’ve asked the Department for Work and Pensions about this, and when exactly legislation will be introduced.
The government has estimated the policy will reduce spending by £15 billion a year by 2039/40 (in cash terms), and that this will go towards its plans for a National Care Service (another pledge which we’re tracking). This figure has been called “very uncertain” by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, though it also referred to the adjustment to the triple lock as a “welcome change”. The Resolution Foundation has also cast doubt on the figure.
