4 November 2026
- ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to
middle of October 2026; forward-looking horizon extended to end of September 2027 - Headline ECB wage tracker at 2.7% in second half of 2026 and 2.8% in first half of 2027; it will decline to
2.4% in third quarter of 2027 based on still-limited employee coverage - ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments increased from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.8% for first three quarters of
2027
The European Central Bank (ECB) headline wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements with
one-off payments smoothed over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.2% of employees in participating countries). The tracker stands at 2.7%
for the second half of 2026 (based on a coverage of 45.6%) and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 (based on a
coverage of 31.8%), and declines to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027 (based on a still relatively low
coverage of 23.3%). The relatively low ECB wage tracker in the first half of 2026 still reflects the downward
mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in
the following year. These effects dissipate fully in the second half of 2026.
Compared with the September 2026 data release, the headline wage tracker was revised upwards
slightly for the second half of 2026 and for the first half of 2027, by around 0.1 percentage points on average.
The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments stands at 2.4% for the
third quarter of 2027, down from 2.7% for the first half of 2027 and for 2026 as a whole. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments moderates to 2.5% for the third
quarter of 2027 from 2.9% for the first half of 2027 and stands at 2.6% on average for 2026, continuing to indicate a limited scope for
one-off payments in recently signed collective bargaining agreements. Excluding one-offs, the ECB wage tracker
averages 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, indicating a slightly higher permanent negotiated wage growth
than registered for the full year of 2026.
The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages as
it smooths one-off payments over time. By contrast, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is
better suited to describing yearly dynamics in negotiated wages.
The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker has been extended up to the end of September 2027. As new
agreements are signed and coverage of contracts reaching 2027 gradually increases, the forward-looking horizon
of the wage tracker will be further extended to the full year of 2027 in the December 2026 data release.
Employee coverage for 2026 stands at 46.2% but decreases significantly to
31.8% in the first half of 2027 and to 23.3% in the third quarter of 2027. The employee coverage is still
limited for the third quarter of 2027 and will steadily increase over time as more wage agreements are signed.
The employee coverage for 2026 and the first half of 2027 is broadly similar to that recorded at the same time
last year, as indicated in the November 2025 data release. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.
Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revision, and the forward-looking component should not be
interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information that is currently available for active collective
bargaining agreements. Moreover, the ECB wage tracker does not perfectly track the indicator of negotiated wage
growth, which is aggregated for the euro area based on country-level data on negotiated wage growth calculated
by national sources (see Chart 1, left panel). Therefore, deviations from the indicator of negotiated wage
growth are to be expected over time.
For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the September 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which
indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee of 3.3% in 2026.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on
the ECB Data Portal. The
data release following the December 2026 meeting of the ECB Governing Council will exceptionally be published on
18 December 2026.
Chart 1
ECB wage tracker: forward-looking signals and revisions to the previous data release
|
Indicators between January 2025 and September 2027
|
Revisions to previous data release
|
|---|---|
|
(left-hand scale: yearly growth rates, percentages; right-hand
|
(percentage points)
|
 |
Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Nationale Bank van België/Banque nationale
de Belgique, the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue, the Belgian
National Social Security Office, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España,
the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN, the
Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, the Confederation of Finnish
Industries, Statistics Finland and Eurostat. The indicator of negotiated wage growth is calculated
using data from the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue, the
Deutsche Bundesbank, the Spanish Ministry of Labour and Social Economy, the Banque de France, the
Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Austria,
Statistics Finland, Haver Analytics and Eurostat.
Notes: Dashed lines denote forward-looking information (which is not yet available for the
indicator of negotiated wage growth). The latest observations are for September 2027 for the ECB
wage tracker indicators (left panel), August 2026 for the indicator of negotiated wage growth (left
panel) and June 2027 for revisions to the previous data release (right panel).
What do the four different indicators show?
- The headline ECB wage tracker is a tracker of negotiated wage growth that includes
collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back-dated
pay, which are smoothed over 12 months. - The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or
permanent) negotiated wage increases. - The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology
that, in terms of both data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not
necessarily the same as, that used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth. - The share of employees covered is the percentage of employees across the participating
countries that are directly covered by ECB wage tracker data. This indicator provides information on the
representativeness of the underlying (negotiated) wage growth signals obtained from the set of wage tracker
indicators for the aggregate of the participating countries. Employee coverage differs across countries and
within each country over time (more details can be found in Table 2).
Table 1
ECB wage tracker summary
(percentages)
|
ECB wage tracker
|
Coverage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline indicator | With unsmoothed one-off payments | Excluding one-off payments |
Share of employees
|
|
|
2013-25
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
50.8
|
|
2026
|
2.3
|
2.7
|
2.6
|
46.2
|
|
Q1 2026
|
1.8
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
47.0
|
|
Q2 2026
|
1.9
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
46.6
|
|
July 2026
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.4
|
45.9
|
|
August 2026
|
2.7
|
3.2
|
2.7
|
45.9
|
|
September 2026
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
45.6
|
|
October 2026
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
45.5
|
|
November 2026
|
2.8
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
45.5
|
|
December 2026
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
45.0
|
|
Q1 2027
|
2.8
|
2.6
|
2.8
|
35.3
|
|
Q2 2027
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
28.3
|
|
Q3 2027
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
23.3
|
Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Nationale Bank van België/Banque
nationale de Belgique, the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue,
the Belgian National Social Security Office, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco
de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN, the
Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, the Confederation of Finnish
Industries, Statistics Finland and Eurostat.
Notes: ECB wage tracker indicators reflect yearly
growth in negotiated wages as a percentage. Coverage is defined as the share of employees in
participating countries as a percentage. Rows with values in italics and bold refer to the
forward-looking aspect of the respective indicators. Data are subject to revision.
Table 2
Employee coverage by country
(share of employees in each country, percentages)
|
Belgium
|
Germany
|
Greece
|
Spain
|
France
|
Italy
|
Netherlands
|
Austria
|
Finland
|
Euro area
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2013-25
|
38.7
|
42.8
|
18.5
|
61.3
|
52.5
|
51.5
|
63.9
|
75.5
|
65.9
|
50.8
|
|
2026
|
44.5
|
45.8
|
22.6
|
33.9
|
47.9
|
48.0
|
60.2
|
73.5
|
62.0
|
46.2
|
|
Q1 2026
|
44.4
|
46.0
|
23.0
|
35.9
|
49.3
|
48.3
|
60.8
|
75.7
|
62.6
|
47.0
|
|
Q2 2026
|
44.6
|
46.0
|
22.8
|
34.9
|
48.3
|
48.2
|
60.6
|
74.1
|
63.0
|
46.6
|
|
Q3 2026
|
44.6
|
45.8
|
22.3
|
32.5
|
47.2
|
48.2
|
59.8
|
73.0
|
61.8
|
45.8
|
|
Q4 2026
|
44.5
|
45.4
|
22.3
|
32.4
|
46.8
|
47.2
|
59.5
|
71.3
|
60.7
|
45.3
|
|
Q1 2027
|
44.5
|
41.8
|
14.4
|
16.4
|
26.2
|
44.8
|
46.9
|
43.5
|
60.3
|
35.3
|
|
Q2 2027
|
44.4
|
29.0
|
13.1
|
15.8
|
14.8
|
43.6
|
45.6
|
34.2
|
59.9
|
28.3
|
|
Q3 2027
|
44.3
|
25.1
|
13.1
|
14.5
|
1.3
|
42.4
|
38.3
|
29.7
|
59.1
|
23.3
|
Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Nationale Bank van België/Banque
nationale de Belgique, the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue,
the Belgian National Social Security Office, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco
de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN, the
Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, the Confederation of Finnish
Industries, Statistics Finland and Eurostat.
Notes: The euro area aggregate comprises the nine
participating wage tracker countries. The coverage shows the relative strength of wage signals for
each country and the euro area. The historical average is calculated from January 2015 for Finland
and January 2016 for Greece. For the other countries, it is calculated from January 2013 to December
2025. Rows with values in italics and bold refer to the forward-looking aspect of the indicator.
Data are subject to revision.
For media queries, please contact Benoit Deeg, tel.: +491721683704
Notes:
- The ECB wage tracker is the result of a Eurosystem partnership currently comprising the ECB and nine euro
area national central banks: the Nationale Bank van België/Banque nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche
Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, De
Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank. It is based on a
highly granular database of active collective bargaining agreements for Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain,
France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland. The wage tracker can be used to help assess wage
pressures in the euro area. - The wage tracker methodology uses a double aggregation approach. First, it aggregates the highly granular
information on collective bargaining agreements and constructs the wage tracker indicators at the country
level using information on the employee coverage within each country. Second, it uses this information to
construct the aggregate for the euro area using time-varying weights based on the total compensation of
employees among the participating countries. - Given that the forward-looking nature of the tracker is dependent on the underlying collective bargaining
agreements database, the wage signals should always be considered conditional on the information available
at any given point in time and thus subject to revision. This is particularly relevant at the turn of the
year, as many agreements are signed or renewed in the first quarter in some countries.
