23 October 2026
- median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months and expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, while median expectations for inflation three years and five years ahead were unchanged;
- expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased, as did expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months;
- expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased;
- expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged
Inflation
In September the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased, to 3.1% from 3.0%. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead and median expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, remaining higher than the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).
Income and consumption
Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% in September from 1.0% in August. As in previous months expectations were, on average, higher in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) than in the top quintile (1.2%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.2%, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.7% from 3.6%.
Income and consumption results
Economic growth and labour market
Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased in September to -1.5%, from -1.2% in August. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3%, from 11.0%. As observed in previous months, households in the bottom income quintile expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.6%), while households in the top income quintile expected the lowest rate (9.7%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.
Economic growth and labour market results
Housing and credit access
Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, higher than in August (3.4%). As in previous months expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months remained, on average, higher in the lowest income quintile (4.0%) than in the highest income quintile (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged from July, at 4.9%. As in previous months, households in the top income quintile expected the lowest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (4.4%), while those in the bottom quintile expected the highest rates (5.7%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months increased compared with August, as did the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months (relative to those expecting an easing).
Housing and credit access results
The microdata underlying the aggregate results are available in the Data and methodological information section of the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) web page.
The release of the CES results for October is scheduled for 27 November 2026.
For media queries, please contact: Benoit Deeg, tel.: +49 172 1683704.
Notes
- The fieldwork for the latest CES wave was carried out between 27 August and 28 September 2026.
- The main aggregate results for individual countries and the euro area are published on the ECB Data Portal and on the ECB’s website every month.
- Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics presented in this press release refer to the 2% winsorised mean. For further details, see ECB Consumer Expectations Survey – Guide to the computation of aggregate statistics.
- The CES is a monthly online survey of, currently, around 19,000 adult consumers (i.e. aged 18 or over) from 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The results are used for policy analysis and complement other data sources used by the ECB.
- Further information about the survey and the data collected is available on the CES web page. Detailed information can also be found in the following two publications: Bańkowska, K. et al., “ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation”, Occasional Paper Series, No 287, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, December 2021; and Georgarakos, D. and Kenny, G., “Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 129, Supplement, July 2022, pp. S1-S14.
- The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.
