24 July 2026
- median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months decreased significantly, as did median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased slightly, while median expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged;
- expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months decreased;
- expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
- expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months decreased, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time increased.
Inflation
In June the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased to 3.6%, from 4.0% in May. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased, down to 3.0%, from 3.5%, as did expectations for inflation three years ahead, which declined to 2.8%, from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged, at 2.4%. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased for the second consecutive month, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the war in the Middle East. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in higher-income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).
Income and consumption
Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, from 1.0% in May. Meanwhile, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased to 5.1%, from 5.4% in May. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.6%, from 3.8% in May, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expecting slightly higher spending growth than those in the highest two quintiles.
Income and consumption results
Economic growth and labour market
Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months increased to -1.4%, from -1.7% in May. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11.2%, from 11.3% in May. As observed in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.8%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.7%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.7%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.
Economic growth and labour market results
Housing and credit access
In June consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, compared with 3.6% in May. As in previous months, expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months in the lowest income quintile (3.7%) remained higher on average than in the highest quintile (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 5.0%, from 4.9% in May. As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.8%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rates (4.4%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months declined in June, as did the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions (relative to those expecting an easing) over the next 12 months.
Housing and credit access results
The microdata underlying the aggregate results are available in the Data and methodological information section of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) web page.
The release of the CES results for July is scheduled for 21 August 2026.
For media queries, please contact: Benoit Deeg, tel.: +49 172 1683704.
Notes
- The fieldwork for the latest CES wave was carried out between 4 and 29 June 2026.
- The main aggregate results for individual countries and the euro area are published on the ECB Data Portal and on the ECB’s website every month.
- Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics presented in this press release refer to the 2% winsorised mean. For further details, see ECB Consumer Expectations Survey – Guide to the computation of aggregate statistics.
- The CES is a monthly online survey of, currently, around 19,000 adult consumers (i.e. aged 18 or over) from 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The results are used for policy analysis and complement other data sources used by the ECB.
- Further information about the survey and the data collected is available on the CES web page. Detailed information can also be found in the following two publications: Bańkowska, K. et al., “ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation”, Occasional Paper Series, No 287, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, December 2021; and Georgarakos, D. and Kenny, G., “Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 129, Supplement, July 2022, pp. S1-S14.
- The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.
