After a summer of apocalyptic headlines, a new survey finds that people across the political spectrum are deeply concerned about preparing for the effects of global warming. The adaptation imperative may end up being the kind of crisis that forces us to stop neglecting the green agenda and act at the necessary scale.
GENEVA/LONDON—This year may be remembered as the one when climate change could no longer be ignored. Rich economies are now suffering the devastating effects of global warming that have long plagued other countries. Wildfires, droughts, heat waves, and floods dominate the news, forcing political engagement and serious policy responses and business decisions.
Even climate skeptics have woken up to the danger. In a summer of apocalyptic headlines—such as record heat boiling potatoes underground in South Korea—it was striking that France’s far-right National Rally cited research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the party’s long-standing bête noire, in their proposal for expanding air conditioning. Likewise, Austria’s version of Fox News sought to platform a climate scientist after years of downplaying human-caused climate change.
It seems you no longer need to acknowledge climate change to prepare for its effects.
Politicians are notorious for failing to act until a crisis forces their hand. In May, the United Kingdom’s independent climate adviser published its official and alarming adaptation report, which was dutifully received. But only after a scorching summer set in did the government spring into action. In late June, the UK launched a climate-security taskforce, and in mid-August, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham convened a high-level emergency committee to discuss the country’s response to extreme heat, wildfires, and drought.
Public opinion also seems to have crossed a threshold. A new survey commissioned by our organizations, Morphosis and Vibe Fund, together with CORE, polled 18,000 people across 18 countries, making it one of the most extensive citizen polls about adaptation to date. The survey found that people across the political spectrum are deeply concerned about the effects of climate change. The agenda for reaching net-zero emissions may still divide societies, but such differences fade when it comes to the urgent need for adaptation.
Moreover, survey respondents believe that climate change will affect their jobs and the cost of living now and in the long term. The economics of adaptation, rather than the need for emergency planning, is front and center for many people, converting general concern about climate change into politically salient demands.
As for what needs to be done, respondents think that governments are responsible for advancing adaptation—and are falling short. In their view, policymakers play a crucial role in securing peoples’ safety, protecting the most vulnerable, providing critical infrastructure, and ensuring that food, water, and energy are accessible and affordable. Businesses, on the other hand, are expected to deliver inexpensive adaptation solutions, especially when they involve the development and deployment of new technologies.
Finally, the survey finds that people see adaptation as complementing, not substituting for, emissions reductions. This challenges the emerging political narrative that we should focus exclusively on coping with the effects of climate change, rather than on trying to address its causes. It also suggests that climate advocates should not shy away from talking about adaptation, for fear that it might delay or prevent mitigation measures. In fact, a majority of respondents believe that expanded adaptation efforts would likely result in more ambitious action to reduce emissions.
Societies often discard accepted conventions and norms in the wake of a crisis. Following the 2008 financial crisis, central banks abandoned orthodoxy and began printing money at an unprecedented rate to avoid global economic contagion and meltdown. After COVID-19 struck, many G20 governments subsidized household and business incomes to a level that once would have been considered impossible. And in the years following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union reduced its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%.
In all three cases, slow-moving vulnerabilities that policymakers studiously ignored suddenly became losses that could not be deferred. Decades of resistance collapsed, and the infeasible became feasible.
The urgent need to adapt to climate change could thus be the kind of crisis that forces us to stop neglecting the green agenda and act at the necessary scale. This would allow us to avoid the tragic consequences of extreme weather events and develop a robust economic response to manage global warming’s far-reaching effects on households and communities. Policy measures must focus not only on mitigating the immediate physical risks, but also on devising adaptation solutions that will bolster economies for decades to come.
The adaptation imperative represents the new frontier for households, businesses, and countries. Politicians must lead the charge, which means moving beyond emergency measures to engage in public debate that includes people from across the political spectrum and policymakers from around the world. The UK could make this a priority during its G20 presidency next year. With an El Niño cycle underway, the prognosis for 2027 is grim, leaving us with months, not years, to prepare.
