On the flight out to New York this week, one of Andy Burnham’s senior aides warned him that meeting Donald Trump would be the political equivalent of white water rafting.
While there is a well-known playbook the US president deploys when he first meets other world leaders, he remains a deeply unpredictable figure and any dealings with him can leave you crashing into the rocks.
Trump’s strategy involves personal flattery, transactional diplomacy and a public evaluation of his guest’s skills.
When Keir Starmer first met the president at the White House early last year, it was there in spades. Trump praised his “beautiful” accent, said that Britain was a “wonderful” place and claimed that he had driven a “hard bargain” on tariffs.
On the flight home, the clearly relieved former prime minister gave journalists a Trump-style thumbs up, telling them he was “happy” before returning to the front of the plane. But in time, their relationship fell apart.
Just over 18 months later, it was an apprehensive Burnham’s turn to head down the diplomatic rapids at the UN general assembly. As the new prime minister faced the press after their talks, the president again deployed the playbook – describing Burnham as a “natural businessperson” who had “lots of assets on his side”, while predicting he would be a “great” leader.
The British side, including foreign secretary Ed Miliband and national security adviser Jonathan Powell, could not hide their relief when Trump kept his policy differences with the UK muted – beyond inevitable criticism of what he described as the “terrible” Chagos deal.
Even on the issue that fully ruptured Starmer’s relationship with Trump – his refusal to allow the US to use British airbases for attacks against Iran at the start of the war – the president held his punches.
“Some countries could have stepped forward. But there aren’t too many countries, frankly, that could have handled that,” he said.
Afterwards, British officials – even those who have witnessed the Trump strategy in action before and knew it would not necessarily last – were delighted with how the talks had gone.
“It was the top end of our expectations,” said one. “All the issues you guys had written about – the Falklands, a united Ireland, Chagos – all fine.”
They admitted the West Bank settlement trade ban was the one area they had worried about most. But a summer of diplomacy got Trump on board, and to their relief, he deferred to Burnham on the question.
“It was a bit of a curveball, but it was better than him criticising it,” another aide said.
Burnham even managed to use the moment to steer the raft – briefly – into calmer waters, explaining his hopes of drawing an end to the political turbulence that has gripped Britain for more than a decade, and creating a more “positive story” for the country instead.
“More than anything, we just needed them to connect, and start building a relationship that we can leverage when we need to,” a third government official said.
But just as Starmer found that with time, policy differences between the UK and US made the relationship more difficult to navigate, so his successor is likely to find the same.
Burnham’s team is right to be cautious about the unsteadiness that Trump can inflict – his international actions causing ripples in the UK too. The prime minister may have survived the first set of diplomatic rapids, but there are more to navigate ahead.
