Wall Street research company Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its latest downturn, reclaim its 2025 high and set new records in the coming years heading into the peak of its historical cycle.
Bernstein expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 under both its base and bull cases, according to a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph.
The company said Bitcoin gained 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound that could signal the end of the current bear cycle.
The analysts’ call comes as institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers play a bigger role in the market, which Bernstein said provided greater downside support during the latest cycle and contributed to a smaller drawdown than the 75% to 90% declines of previous cycles.
Next cycle could see Bitcoin reach $300,000
Bernstein’s base case puts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 before reaching a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. Its bull case puts the biggest crypto at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.
The company maintained its longer-term BTC target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.
Bernstein’s forecast is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which the company links to the halving, an event that cuts the amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years. Bernstein divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation.
Source: Bernstein
The company then estimates Bitcoin’s potential price during those cycles by comparing it with the marginal cost of producing Bitcoin, or the estimated cost for the least efficient miners to produce new coins.
Related: Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report
“We assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will behave in a similar manner to previous 4-year cycles,” Bernstein analysts said.
Under Bernstein’s base case, that multiple falls from 1.4 times at Bitcoin’s $125,000 peak in 2025 to 1.25 times at a projected $300,000 peak in 2029 and about 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033.
Strategy could ramp up Bitcoin buying
Bernstein also expects a Bitcoin recovery to improve the outlook for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins.
The analysts maintained their “Outperform” rating on Strategy but cut its MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and its updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. MSTR closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4% on the day, according to Yahoo Finance.
Source: Bernstein
Bernstein said continued Bitcoin strength, combined with a recovery in Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock to around $100, could allow the company to “go kinetic again” with Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday, according to Yahoo Finance.
Recent analysis from Regime Intelligence said Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less vulnerable to a crypto market crash than to a prolonged loss of capital-market access, a risk that could threaten its ability to fund roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.
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