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Two competitive House races in Florida combined to attract more than $15 million in new outside spending since Sept. 21 – more than any other House contests in the country during that span, and a sign of where outside groups may believe their money will go furthest.
Total outside spending – money spent by super PACs and other groups independently of candidates’ campaigns – on federal races this cycle has now surpassed $2 billion. Between Sept. 21 and Oct. 7, such spending in House races alone grew by nearly $190 million, according to an OpenSecrets analysis of Federal Election Commission data on independent expenditures.
That new money was spent in just 112 of the 435 House districts. Ten races each drew $5 million or more, and together they attracted $62.6 million – roughly a third of all new outside spending on House contests during that stretch.
And in yet another sign of how a small group of big spenders dominates the field, several of the biggest outside groups – including No Going Back PAC, House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) – show up repeatedly in the races with the most new outside money. No Going Back PAC is linked to President Donald Trump and his MAGA Inc. hybrid committee while HMP works to elect Democrats to the House and CLF does the same for Republicans. Each ranks among the 10 highest-spending outside groups for the full election cycle, combining to spend more than $250 million.
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The two races drawing the most new outside money are in Florida. Nearly $7.9 million flowed into the state’s 25th District contest and another $7.5 million went into the 14th District race.
“It’s pretty clear that both sides see [those two districts] as winnable,” Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, told OpenSecrets. “And so they’re going to put some money in there because they think they can get a good return on their investment.”
Outside spending on House races over that two-week stretch was less than half of the nearly $407 million that poured into Senate races. But for those groups, Wagner said, House races can be the better bargain – particularly in a large state like Florida.
“It doesn’t take a huge amount of money,” Wagner said. “It’s a lot easier to influence a House race than the Florida Senate race. … You can’t just drop a little bit of money into the Florida Senate race and shift it. If you’re talking about a really close district, one with persuadable voters, that’s where your outside groups are targeting because they think that’s where they can get the most impact for the dollars that they spend.”
Of the 10 House races that attracted the most outside spending since Sept. 21, eight – including the two in Florida and North Carolina’s 1st District – are rated as toss-ups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Cook rates a ninth, New Jersey’s 7th, as leaning Democratic but still competitive. The 10th race, in New York’s 3rd, was shifted from competitive to likely Democratic on Oct. 9.
It is no coincidence that those spenders are targeting competitive races, said North Carolina State University political science professor Steven Greene.
“Campaign spending, especially from outside groups … is highly strategic, and you want to spend money where you think it has the most likelihood of actually making a difference in the outcome,” Greene told OpenSecrets. “You don’t spend money where you don’t think it can make the difference.”
The contest between Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) and Republican challenger Scott Singer in south Florida’s redrawn 25th District drew the most. The influx pushed the total spent on the race to $12.9 million – more than 2.5 times what was before Sept. 21. FEC records show No Going Back PAC spent nearly $2.4 million on Sept. 28 on TV ads opposing Moskowitz. Three days later, HMP bankrolled nearly $1.2 million on ads opposing Singer.
The pattern was similar in the 14th District, near Tampa, where Rep. Kathy Castor (D) is facing Republican Mike Beltran. Nearly 85% of the contests’ $8.8 million in outside spending came between Sept. 21 and Oct. 7. On Sept. 28 alone, No Going Back PAC spent $1.8 million on TV ads opposing Castor and CLF poured more than $1.2 million into media placements opposing her. One day later, HMP spent more than $596,000 and EDF Action Votes – the super PAC arm of the nonprofit Environmental Defense Action Fund – spent more than $500,000 on ads opposing Beltran.
Another district with significant new outside spending was North Carolina’s 1st, where $6.8 million was spent in the contest between Rep. Don Davis (D) and Republican Laurie Buckhout between Sept. 21 and Oct. 7, bringing its total to $11 million. Once again, one of the key players was HMP – which on Sept. 22 poured nearly $2.4 million into TV ads opposing Buckhout. CLF, its GOP counterpart, on Sept. 28 spent $1.4 million on media placement opposing Davis. Additionally, the With Honor Fund III – a super PAC that backs military veterans and national security professionals from both parties – spent just under $1 million on TV ads to support Davis, an Air Force Academy graduate who served for eight years.
Geography may help explain why that district is such an attractive target. Largely rural – its largest city (Rocky Mount) has a population of 55,120 – it is served by television stations based in Raleigh, Greenville and Norfolk, Va. Stations in those areas typically command lower ad rates than those in the largest markets. What matters even more than price, Greene said, is how well a district aligns with the media markets that serve it.
“The efficiency of spending comes down to how well your district overlaps with various media markets,” Greene said, using New York City as an example of a location where, for House candidates, “there’s just never going to be a giant TV campaign, because 90% of your ads are airing on a station that is covering all of these other congressional districts as well. It’s super inefficient.
“It suggests that the various media markets in [North Carolina’s 1st District] line up reasonably well so that you’re not wasting a ton of money on people … in NC-2 seeing ads for this race,” he added. “You’re never going to have the perfect match. But I have to presume on some level that – again, compared to other close, competitive national House races where money can be spent – it’s always about where that marginal dollar’s going to make the most difference.
Still, Greene added that “my hypothesis is that the media market spending is probably pretty good here compared to some of the other close races.”
By contrast, outside spending in the two most expensive House races of the cycle has gone quiet.
More than $45 million was spent on the contest between Democrat Micah Lasher and Republican Caroline Shinkle to replace Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) in New York’s 12th District, which covers midtown Manhattan and the Upper West and East sides of New York City. It is the only House race to draw more than $30 million. Cook rates it as solidly Democratic. FEC records show none of its outside spending came after the June 23 primary.
Similarly, outside groups spent $26.2 million on Kentucky’s 4th District race – but none has come recently. Rather, the contest’s outside spending was focused on the May 19 primary in which Republican Rep. Thomas Massie – a critic of Trump during his second term – lost to Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein. Cook rates the race between Gallrein and Democrat Melissa Strange as solidly Republican.
