Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
No tankers have loaded at Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, for at least a week, according to shipping and satellite data providers, suggesting the renewed US naval blockade has brought Tehran’s crude sales to a halt.
Washington reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports in mid-July after an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz collapsed. Kharg Island, which is critical to Iran’s oil industry, fell idle on July 31, according to ship tracking company Kpler and consultancy Energy Aspects.
Satellite images showed all three loading bays at Kharg had been “empty for a sustained period”, said maritime intelligence company Windward. Only 16 vessels were anchored in the waiting area around Kharg on Tuesday, Windward added, the lowest number since early last month.
Roughly nine out of every 10 barrels of crude exported by Iran are loaded on the tiny coral island in the northern Gulf because much of the country’s coastline is too shallow to accommodate large tankers.
“The blockade is effective, in the sense that there is not a lot of tanker movement in or out,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects.
But Bronze said the loss of exports was unlikely to put immediate pressure on Tehran to compromise in negotiations with the US. “It is pretty clear the Iranians feel they have the upper hand when it comes to Hormuz and they are willing to tolerate a lot of economic pain to press their advantage,” he said.
Iran has continued loading vessels at Kharg throughout its six-month war with the US and Israel, making the current interruption one of the longest since the war began.
United Against Nuclear Iran (Uani), a Washington-based lobbying group which tracks Iranian oil shipments, said it had not observed any tanker laden with Iranian crude successfully leaving the Gulf since July 12.
For now, Iran is continuing to receive revenues from cargoes that left the Gulf during the ceasefire and are only now reaching buyers in Asia. Uani said 26 Iran-flagged tankers had reached waters off Malaysia, where Iranian crude is typically transferred before being delivered to Chinese refineries.
Bronze said Tehran could even benefit if oil prices rose before those barrels were ultimately sold, but that the income will eventually stop in the coming weeks. “The sands are running through the egg timer in terms of how long this will continue to generate revenues,” he said.
The blockade is also preventing Iran from replenishing the fleet of empty tankers available to load at Kharg. Vessels that have already discharged their cargoes in Asia have not returned to Iranian waters. Uani said several were waiting off Sri Lanka, while others had been spotted near Oman and Pakistan.
Benchmark Brent crude oil was priced at just under $82 a barrel in London on Friday as traders continued to wait for a deal that would open up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian foreign ministry officials said this week they had agreed with Oman on the geographical coordinates for a new shipping route through the strait, but there have been no signs of progress since Wednesday, when they said a joint statement was in the “final stages”.
The halt to activity at Kharg has not seen the island’s oil storage tanks start to fill up significantly, noted Energy Aspects, suggesting that Tehran has started cutting back crude production at its oilfields to avoid running out of tank space.
While the Iranian-Omani talks have been bilateral, a person briefed on the situation said that if an acceptable deal is reached, the US would lift its blockade and reinstate a waiver on oil sanctions that would allow buyers to freely purchase Iranian crude.
Cartography by Steven Bernard
