Using ground-based telescopes and space-based assets, NASA and SpaceX are tracking a used Falcon 9 upper stage from a commercial mission expected to impact the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, near the Einstein and Bell craters. The impact poses no danger to Earth and NASA scientists are planning to collect lunar data from the event and refine techniques for tracking objects in space.
On Jan. 15, 2025, SpaceX launched the Falcon 9 rocket and successfully deployed Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost 1 lunar lander to the Moon under NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative. Solar activity and gravitational forces caused the stage’s unplanned return to the Moon. NASA and SpaceX remain in communication about the upper stage and its flight path.
Independent astronomers first identified the trajectory using publicly available data. NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, which tracks natural objects that could pose hazards to Earth, later confirmed the stage has a 100% chance of impacting the Moon. NASA will continue tracking it as part of training operations.
Because the Moon has no atmosphere to slow incoming objects, it is struck by meteoroids daily. Human‑made object impacts are far less common but do occur. The rocket stage is expected to create a crater about 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep and throw dust and rock outward as ejecta. For comparison, a meteoroid with the same energy as the upper stage hits the Moon about every six days, so the lunar surface is constantly absorbing impacts with the same force. Despite the disturbance, observing impacts gives scientists valuable insight by revealing how ejecta plumes behave, helping to understand the Moon’s geology and refine models that guide future exploration and science missions.
The impact will not be visible to the naked eye on Earth, but NASA will attempt to observe it in real time. The Meteoroid Environments Office at the agency’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, will use ground‑based telescopes to image the impact; however, weather and lighting conditions may make viewing difficult.
Additionally, NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the ShadowCam instrument aboard South Korea’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter will look for chances to image the site before and after the impact. Image availability will depend on lighting, orbital timing, and spacecraft position, and it may take several days to receive imagery. Any data collected will help scientists better understand artificial impacts and their exploration implications.
Although unplanned in this instance, disposing of upper stages on the lunar surface is a technically accepted and safe method and, in some cases, can be the only practical option for missions in low lunar orbit. Many operators choose controlled impacts because they provide predictable and trackable end of life outcomes.
NASA is committed to debris mitigation and demonstrating responsible disposal practices that safeguard Earth, its orbital environment, and other planetary bodies while enabling discoveries that deepen our understanding of the solar system and benefit humanity.
