The Conservatives’ main competitors on the right, Reform UK, enjoyed stellar results at May’s local elections, and there was serious talk of them eclipsing the Tories as the U.K.’s real opposition.
Since then, however, Farage has faced months of scrutiny about his party’s finances, and spent the summer campaigning in a self-imposed by-election entirely focused on his own position.
“A year ago, it felt like Reform UK had cannibalized the British right behind them, whereas now that seems much more up for grabs,” says Keiran Pedley, the U.K. director of politics at polling company Ipsos. “It doesn’t mean that the Tories have won that argument, but at least there is an argument to be had.”
Reform UK still leads the Tories in national voting intention, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, and it has gained a real toehold in local government that will help it build out an election-fighting machine.
But, says Pedley: “If you’re a voter on the right of politics in Britain, maybe as you become less impressed by Nigel Farage, you’re also looking to Kemi Badenoch, hoping that she can be the answer.”
Farage was widely criticized for failing to declare a £5 million gift he received from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne in the 12 months before he became an MP, while there’s been a fresh flood of cash to Reform UK in recent months.
