Democrats across the country agree that their new primary map will redraw the road to their party’s 2028 presidential nomination. But, as they look to what’s widely expected to be a crowded and competitive contest, no one is quite sure what turns it will take.
Instead of Iowa and New Hampshire, long the traditional openers of the primary process, Democratic candidates will navigate their way through a six-state gantlet that starts in South Carolina on Jan. 22, winds through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Michigan and ends in Virginia on Feb. 29.
The cross-country sprint has significantly broadened the race — geographically, racially and ideologically, Democratic strategists say.
“It really could benefit anyone,” said Rob Flaherty, a deputy campaign manager for former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 run and the co-host of “Nobody Knows Anything,” a podcast about national politics. “I follow things pretty closely, and I have no idea how it’s going to bounce.”
Here’s what the calendar does — and doesn’t — tell us about the 2028 Democratic primary race.
Black voters will gain new power.
The new map is good news for Black voters, increasing their power in the earliest stage of the contest. While the electorate in Iowa and New Hampshire is largely white, a majority of South Carolina Democratic primary voters are Black.
“Black voters are the backbone of this party,” said Christale Spain, the chair of the state’s Democratic Party, in an interview with the political commentator Roland Martin last week. “We should continue to elevate Black voters role in the process.”
Harris, who has floated the possibility of a third presidential run, remains popular with Black voters and could be advantaged by South Carolina’s spot at the head of the line — but it’s hard to predict. In 2020, she exited the race before the state even voted, with her fund-raising having run dry.
Some commentators pointed to the possibility that multiple Black candidates — including perhaps Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia — could split the electorate, sending the race into the next contests with muddled results.
Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, who has a history of building coalitions with Black voters, could be strong in the state. Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary, struggled there in 2020.
Latino voters will gain new clout.
The new map more than doubles the share of Latino voters across the first four states from 2020, the last time Democrats had a competitive presidential primary, according to an analysis by Decision Desk HQ, an election results reporting website.
The heavy Latino populations in Nevada and New Mexico give those voters a pivotal role in culling the field as the candidates move through the early contests.
While Latino voters are generally considered more socially moderate, Senator Bernie Sanders, the liberal Vermont independent, won big in Nevada after investing heavily in organizing there in 2020. Working-class Latino voters could also be inclined toward candidates like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York or Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona.
“The Black voters are going to kick off the calendar,” said Xochitl Hinojosa, a Democratic strategist. “But I do think that Latino voters will ultimately decide who the nominee is.”
Progressives are already skeptical.
The announcement of the new calendar prompted grumbles from some corners of the progressive world that the Democratic National Committee had created a schedule designed to hamper insurgent left-wing candidates.
But it’s not clear what kind of candidate is favored by the new calendar.
The six early states are relatively inexpensive to advertise in, which could provide the opportunity for an insurgent to catch fire — though in 2020, South Carolina elevated Joseph R. Biden Jr., an establishment candidate, over Mr. Sanders.
On the other hand, the new map rewards campaigns with the money to build a six-state, cross-country organization that can reach diverse constituencies. That may benefit candidates like Ms. Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, who could enter the race with well-established political brands and expansive fund-raising lists.
Will New Hampshire jump the line (again)?
One of the biggest changes to the calendar is bumping New Hampshire from its vaunted “first in the nation” position.
New Hampshire law requires the state’s presidential primary to be held at least seven days before any “similar election.” That standard would bump its primary into mid-January, before South Carolina.
In past elections, New Hampshire has been immovable. In 2024, party leaders also tried to move the state back in the calendar. It voted first anyhow, risking its delegates in the process.
Local officials have promised to once again defend the state’s tradition. But in 2028, the penalties for candidates could be onerous: The party has threatened to bar any candidate who campaigns in a state that jumps the calendar from participating in official party debates.
That change could hurt Mr. Buttigieg, who has shown strength in the state.
New Hampshire also allows undeclared voters to participate in party contests. That dynamic has made it a place where moderates can gain steam — a benefit such candidates will no longer get.
