Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. This is our last “regular” edition before we bring you a series of special daily pop-ups from the United Nations General Assembly high-level week (or UNGA, as you might know it) in New York next week! John and Rishi will both be having a bunch of interesting conversations both on and offstage at FP’s smorgasbord of sideline summits—and we’ll be in your inbox as always. Reach out if you’d like to connect or have something interesting to share.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Trump’s cyber-offense plans for the private sector, the AI doomsday panic, and the ever-out-of-reach U.S.-Iran deal.
Among the many upheavals to U.S. foreign policy in President Donald Trump’s second term thus far has been a fundamental reshaping of the way that Washington approaches cyberwarfare.
The Trump administration (with Elon Musk’s help) has made massive cuts to the U.S. government’s cyber posture, cutting staff and programs at organizations such as the State Department and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
But that has been accompanied by a push to conduct more offensive cyberattacks against adversaries—as the United States did in both Venezuela and Iran—rather than simply defending U.S. systems from Chinese, Russian, Iranian, or North Korean hackers. Those adversaries often blur the lines between government and the private sector, with criminal hackers and so-called hacktivist groups often targeting critical U.S. systems in alignment (if not direct affiliation) with their respective regimes.
The Trump administration’s strategy to bridge the gap involves some line-blurring of its own between the U.S. government and private companies, which may soon start hacking back with the government’s blessing. Trump first laid out the proposal in a national security memorandum around a month ago, in which he directed the government to partner with “vetted” private companies to conduct cyberattacks and surveillance against foreign transnational criminal networks that target U.S. citizens.
“I think the big thing from my perspective on cyber, and from the president’s perspective, is engaging with private industry in a new way,” White House national cyber director Sean Cairncross told an audience at the Billington Cybersecurity Summit in Washington last week.
The FBI also announced its first-ever unclassified cyber strategy at the summit, which calls for more joint operations with private companies. The strategy’s goal is “to make industry an operational partner in this fight, as opposed to just somebody we shared threat intelligence back and forth with,” Brett Leatherman, the assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division, told reporters.
The FBI has already undertaken joint operations with companies such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, and the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike to disrupt criminal hackers this year, and the U.S. military is reportedly preparing to undertake a similar shift in which it will bring in private contractors to conduct cyberoperations.
A big experiment. Cybersecurity experts and former officials who spoke to SitRep expressed cautious optimism about the approach—if done correctly.
“I think this works as an experiment because we’re always short capacity,” said Anne Neuberger, who served as deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology in the Biden administration. “If this approach can bring just more operations to bear on targets like these that fundamentally end up operating with a lot of impunity, my own view is that’s a good thing.”
Large tech companies such as Google and Microsoft build the software and systems used by governments, individuals, and businesses alike, and are often the prime targets of—and thus first line of defense against—adversarial hackers.
“Google or Microsoft or some of the other larger corporations actually get to help us with operations because they’re powerhouses, and I think the bureau has definitely realized that the private sector has a lot of the expertise,” said Megan Rolander, a senior executive at the cybersecurity firm Black Kite who previously spent over 15 years working on cyberoperations at the FBI. “Folks are using their technology—no one’s using the bureau’s technology,” she added.
Careful choices. But there are a few glaring issues that the government will have to reckon with. Foremost is the concern about nation-state retaliation against U.S. companies for hacking groups tied to governments.
Leatherman acknowledged that that is something U.S. government agencies will have to think about. Even if foreign nations “are using industry right now to hack us in ways that are outside the norms of cyberspace operations,” he said, the United States has “to do it in a way that is lawful. We have to do it in a way that protects organizations just like you protect our own personnel.”
Neuberger said the main thing she’ll be watching for is which companies sign up to be the tip of the spear. “The government has the right controls built in, they’re going to approve it, so I’m assuming they’re not going to approve the cowboys,” she said. “I knew when I was in government—and still today—which companies I would trust, and which companies, if they submitted something, I’d be like: ‘OK, why don’t we get back to you.’”
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
AI “perfect storm.” Artificial intelligence (AI) is evolving at a blistering pace, and it’s causing existential dread. There are now growing calls for tech companies to halt development. Rishi spoke to AI experts about why AI fears have reached a fever pitch, which they attributed to a “perfect storm.” Read the piece, which also gets into the complicated geopolitics of pumping the brakes on AI development, here.
Deal or no deal. Trump this week once again suggested that Iran wants to make a deal to end the war, but Tehran has signaled that no agreement can be reached until its conditions are met. The United States is losing the Iran war by virtually every metric, which John wrote about this week, but the White House maintains that it has the upper hand and said Trump is “satisfied letting the inevitable Iranian collapse play out.” But there’s no guarantee that the administration’s economic pressure campaign will breed results (more on that in Hot Mic).
U.S. Army paratroopers jump out of a U.S. Air Force C-130J Super Hercules during Operation Orient Shield 26 Joint Airborne drop at Kita-Dalen training area in Eniwa, Japan, on Sept. 15.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Trump does not appear to be in a rush to end the Iran war, despite its unpopularity among U.S. voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. The war has driven up energy prices and is fueling inflation, but Trump on Wednesday said this is a “very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done.” John spoke with Gregory Brew, a top Iran expert and senior analyst with Eurasia Group, about where the war stands and what’s driving Trump’s approach.
“I genuinely don’t think Trump is at the moment too concerned about the impact of high fuel and high oil prices on the White House’s position and on his own personal position to an extent that would force him into what he and the administration sees as a very bad deal with Iran. Because that’s ultimately the calculus here,” Brew said. Iran wants Washington to acknowledge its control over the Strait of Hormuz and return to the June memorandum of understanding, but from the administration’s perspective “that’s a really bad deal, and it’s not one that they want to accept.”
“Right now, their feeling is we can absorb high oil prices, high gasoline, and high diesel prices, at least for the next few months. And then see where things lie post-midterms,” Brew said. Trump also does not appear to care about midterms all that much, Brew said, which the president actually explicitly stated back in May. After all, the president has often bypassed Congress in pursuit of his agenda. “Trump’s focus moving forward is going to be on foreign policy and choosing his successor for 2028. So, the midterms don’t really matter,” Brew said.
Friday, Sept. 18: Parliamentary elections are set to begin in Russia and will last through Sept. 20.
Tuesday, Sept. 22: The opening of general debate at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Wednesday, Sept. 23: Morocco is poised to hold parliamentary elections.
Thursday, Sept. 24: Trump is set to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House.
$38 billion—the cost of the Iran war for the United States so far, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
“Surely, we need sufficient means of control before it is all too late?”
—Britain’s King Charles, speaking about the potential “existential” dangers of AI at a summit in Scotland.
