Does Vladimir Putin know exactly how to play Donald Trump? The history of chummy phone calls, high-profile meetings and attempts to bring Russia in from the cold certainly suggests that Moscow’s thuggish ruler has a hold on this American president. If Mr Trump agrees to negotiate Ukraine’s future with Mr Putin and China’s Xi Jinping without Ukraine at the table, he will have handed the Russian leader a victory before talks begin. The message will be that strongmen are ruling the world and determining the fate of weaker nations.
Ukraine has the right to determine its future. That right cannot be waved away by a self-serving Russian proposal, however much it indulges Mr Trump’s belief that world affairs should be settled by powerful men. The scales are falling from European eyes. Trumpian America is raising doubts about whether it will help deter aggression or even honour its Nato commitments. If Washington now rewards Moscow and pressures Ukraine to accept a raw deal, it would be a betrayal. European governments would wonder where America might be in the future when their own security is threatened.
The Wall Street Journal laid out how Mr Putin is hoping to secure a diplomatic prize that dwarfs any US benefits. Mr Trump needs to bring down diesel prices before crucial midterm elections. So the Russian president has offered him a deal that helps the White House claim it is addressing such costs, despite most analysts saying that it won’t. In the same conversation, Mr Putin suggested a summit to end the war in Ukraine that would elevate Moscow and exclude Kyiv. China could also gain recognition as a diplomatic mediator, while Europe would be left out of discussions about ending a war on its continent. Reports suggest that the three leaders could meet at next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China.
American presidential power is meant to be constrained by law and democratic institutions. Mr Trump’s diesel deal appears to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine. More Republicans should find the courage to stand up to their bullying president. While doing so, they might also ask why the order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine for battlefield communications and drone operations reportedly came from the White House. Heated denials from the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, are no substitute for answers.
A transatlantic breakdown in relations between European powers and the US is not inevitable. Mr Trump’s national security strategy last year called Europe “strategically and culturally vital”. But it also demanded that the continent take responsibility for its own defence. European governments must prepare to meet that challenge.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Were Mr Trump to embrace Mr Putin’s trilateral summit, it would echo the Three Emperors’ League that brought together Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia in 1873. Germany sought to isolate defeated France and contain Austro-Russian rivalry, while monarchies sought to defend themselves against revolution. The original arrangement quickly unravelled. Revived in 1881, the league collapsed in 1887 as Vienna and Moscow failed to reconcile their Balkan ambitions. Agreement between powerful rulers provides no guarantee of a lasting settlement. Ukraine’s future cannot hang on bargains struck to stroke the egos of powerful men.
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