When it comes to risk-taking, Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has a formidable track record. In 2018, the Socialist party leader swept to power by triggering a no-confidence vote that unexpectedly ousted his centre-right predecessor Mariano Rajoy. He held on to it against the odds after calling a snap election in 2023, at a time when the popularity of his own party had plummeted and the far right was on the rise.
As he endures another rocky period in office, Mr Sánchez has once more rolled the dice. Last week, he announced a snap poll for November after his minority government was blocked from passing measures to ease Spain’s chronic housing crisis. The eviction of 87-year-old María del Carmen Abascal from her Madrid home sparked nationwide protests over soaring rents and prices. The outrage grew with news of her death last Wednesday. Mr Sánchez clearly hopes that campaigning on a national cause célèbre gives him a chance of winning a stronger progressive mandate next month.
It would be rash to bet against one of Europe’s great political survivors. But the wider context suggests an uphill struggle and a potentially disastrous outcome. The poll lead enjoyed by the conservative Partido Popular (PP) over the Socialist party is substantial, while the far-right Vox party is polling close to 20% – enough to make it an indispensable partner in a PP-led coalition.
Both parties have exploited public anger at a damaging wave of corruption allegations involving senior Socialist figures in Mr Sánchez’s inner circle. The recent border chaos in Ceuta, when an influx of tens of thousands of migrants temporarily overwhelmed the Spanish exclave, has also damaged the government’s reputation.
The stakes for Spain and the rest of Europe are alarmingly high. A PP-Vox government would hand national power to the far right for the first time since the return of democracy after Franco’s death. As well as making life more difficult for migrants and minorities, that could have significant and destabilising constitutional implications. One achievement of Mr Sánchez’s tenure has been the defusing of tensions in relation to the Catalan separatist movement, albeit through agreeing a controversial amnesty deal in exchange for parliamentary support. Vox’s ultranationalist programme includes incendiary proposals to outlaw regional governments and parties, and centralise power in Madrid.
More broadly, defeat for Mr Sánchez would end a period in which Spain has acted as a much-needed counterweight to the rightwards lurch in European politics. His Socialist-led government has resisted Fortress Europe rhetoric and made the necessary case for the benefits of migration, while presiding over an economy that has comfortably outperformed France and Germany. Madrid has also stood apart from the continental rush to prioritise defence at the expense of social spending, while forthrightly opposing Donald Trump’s reckless war in the Middle East and the conduct of Israel’s war in Gaza.
During his eight years in power, Mr Sánchez has proved a master at spotting political opportunities in the midst of crises. By going to the polls as the issue of affordable housing dominates political debate, he has given his party the chance to play to its traditional social democratic strengths. But against strong headwinds, political brinkmanship may not be enough this time round. European progressives can only wait and hope that the prime minister’s biggest gamble yet comes off.
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