Jakub Krupa
“If this [result] stands, Sweden will have a new government” from Magdalena Andersson (00:04) may be the closest we will get to a conclusive result tonight.
With 84% of votes now counted, her left-leaning coalition continues to lead by a single mandate in the new parliament.
Key events
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Closing summary
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Opposition bloc leads by a single seat as 91% votes counted
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90% change of opposition win by single mandate, SVT projection says
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Opposition ahead by smallest of margins in Sweden as vote count continues – what we know so far
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PM Kristersson says ‘open question’ who will form next government, questions opposition’s ability to work together
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Right-leaning bloc ‘still has a chance to win this,’ far-right leader says, as he acknowledges party losses compared to 2022
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‘We have to wait a little longer,’ Left leader Dadgostar says as she celebrates her party’s gains
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‘If this holds, Sweden will have a new government,’ opposition leader says, but calls for patience as ‘every single vote must be counted’
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Deputy PM says ‘nailbiting’ election could be undecided until Wednesday
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Liberal leader hails ‘historic’ comeback as party polls above parliamentary threshold
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Election authority projects opposition win by a single seat
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Opposition bloc leads by one seat with 71% votes counted
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0.1pp difference between two bloc, SVT projection shows
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Projection shows Kristersson’s Moderates broaden their advantage over far-right Sweden Democrats – snap analysis
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SVT projection: centre-left opposition bloc leads by one seat
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Vote count under way in Sweden – in pictures
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A third of voters made up their mind last week, poll says
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SVT exit poll
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12% of PM Kristersson’s party switch sides compared to 2022 – snap analysis
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‘Very dramatic night’ ahead with new PM and new largest opposition party – snap analysis
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Social Democrats could lead the opposition to power despite historically poor result – snap analysis
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Despite pre-election scare, Liberals on course to be in new parliament – snap analysis
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Exit poll suggest comfortable win for opposition parties and worse-than-expected result for far-right Sweden Democrats – snap analysis
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SVT/Valu poll: Opposition parties with majority in new parliament
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TV4 poll: Social Democrats to win, opposition to take power in Sweden
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SVT/Valu poll: centre-left opposition bloc set to win election
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Exit poll: Social Democrats to win in Sweden
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Exit polls imminent
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15 minutes to go
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How the far-right changed Sweden’s conversation on migration
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30 minutes until polls close
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Sweden needs ‘new direction,’ opposition leader Andersson says
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PM Kristersson believes ‘momentum is on our side’
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Opposition bloc leads in polls by somewhere between 5 and 0.3%
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Two frontrunners clash over visions of Sweden in key televised debate
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Long queues reported at some polling stations
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Over 3.5m voters cast their ballots early, including far-right leader Åkesson
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Voters uneasy about difficult campaign as they cast ballots in Stockholm
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Less than an hour until polls close
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Voting about to close in Sweden with far right eyeing first role in government
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‘Not a referendum on far-right,’ even if Sweden Democrats will be a key talking point, expert says
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90 minutes until the polls close
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Who are the key players?
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How do you cast your vote?
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What is the Swedish electoral system and how it works in practice
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What you need to know to follow tonight’s election
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Key timings for tonight’s race
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Hej from Stockholm!
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Evening opening: Welcome to 2026 Swedish parliamentary election live blog
Closing summary
Jakub Krupa
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Opposition left-leaning parties held a lead of just a single seat on Monday morning, with 91% votes counted (1:43), as the result remained too close to call the election (1:04).
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Swedish opposition leader Magdalena Andersson said Sweden would get a new government if the projected result gets confirmed when all votes are counted, as projections suggest a one-mandate win for the left-leaning opposition bloc over Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right bloc (00:04, 00:11).
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But Kristersson urged patience until all votes are counted and suggested exploring an alternative majority, while casting doubt over the ability of the opposition parties to agree on a common programme (00:42).
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Projections by the Swedish election authority and Swedens’s public broadcaster SVT suggest the opposition bloc will have 175 seats in the new parliament, one more than the governing centre-right bloc at 174 (21:48, 23:25).
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Key party leaders conceded that the margin between the two parties is too small to determine the result of the election tonight, with all ballots not expected to be counted before Wednesday (23:47, 23:53, 00:04, 00:18, 00:28).
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The far-right anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats appeared to lose support comparing to 2022, with Kristersson’s Moderates expected to take over as the second largest party in the country (20:15, 22:05, 22:11, 00:28).
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Given the results so far, the government formation process could take weeks if not months.
Thank you for joining me on Europe Live tonight.
If you have any comments, suggestions, or tips, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Opposition bloc leads by a single seat as 91% votes counted
At 1:40am local time (0:40am UK), here are the latest results, with 6,048 polling districts counted (91%).
Social Democratic Party (S) 28%
Moderates (M) 19.9%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.6%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.1%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.2%
Green Party (MP) 6.1%
Liberals (L) 5.4%
90% change of opposition win by single mandate, SVT projection says
With 89% of votes counted, the latest SVT projection confirms the opposition bloc is on course to win by a single seat in the new parliament.
They put the probability of that scenario at about 90%, but stress it can’t be confirmed until all votes are counted.
That’s purely looking at the sum of all mandates won by the opposition parties.
Whether they can actually agree on a manifesto and form a government despite their differences – which is what PM Kristersson alluded to in his speech (00:42) – is a separate issue.
Opposition ahead by smallest of margins in Sweden as vote count continues – what we know so far
Jakub Krupa
Here is a summary of where we are at 1am local time (midnight UK).
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Swedish opposition leader Magdalena Andersson said Sweden would get a new government if the projected result gets confirmed when all votes are counted, as projections suggest a one-mandate win for the left-leaning opposition bloc over Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right bloc (00:04, 00:11).
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But Kristersson urged patience until all votes are counted and suggested exploring an alternative majority, while casting doubt over the ability of the opposition parties to agree on a common programme (00:42).
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Projections by the Swedish election authority and Swedens’s public broadcaster SVT suggest the opposition bloc will have 175 seats in the new parliament, one more than the governing centre-right bloc at 174 (21:48, 23:25).
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Key party leaders conceded that the margin between the two parties is too small to determine the result of the election tonight, with all ballots not expected to be counted before Wednesday (23:47, 23:53, 00:04, 00:18, 00:28).
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The far-right anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats appeared to lose support comparing to 2022, with Kristersson’s Moderates expected to take over as the second largest party in the country (20:15, 22:05, 22:11, 00:28).
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Given the results so far, the government formation process could take weeks if not months.
PM Kristersson says ‘open question’ who will form next government, questions opposition’s ability to work together
Kristersson says “the election result is not in yet,” as he says it’s an “exciting” race.
But he focuses on the fact the three left-wing parties – he excludes in that the Centre party from the opposition bloc – have failed to secure a majority, which he says demonstrates that the country “rejects a shift to the left.”
He says his party will “either have a narrow majority … or will be one seat short,” but in both cases, he says, “there is a majority that wants a different economic policy to the one the Social Democrats campaigned for.”
He says that if the opposition secures 175 seats, he will respect Andersson’s plan to explore a majority with the other three opposition parties, but casts doubt at their ability to work together.
He points out that the Centre party previously ruled out governing with the Left, while the Left insisted it wouldn’t support any government it isn’t part of.
Could this be a last-minute attempt to push the Centre party to switch sides?
He points out that there are “many irreconcilable positions” on the left, which make this result much more complicated than just a sum of seats for the opposition parties.
He says he is also ready to search an alternative majority in the new parliament, excluding the Social Democrats, “to find a workable constellation that can secure support for the economic policy the Swedish voters have voted for.”
He also says he is “incredibly proud” of his party’s achievements and thanks all involved in the campaign.
He says it’s still “an open question” who will lead the next government.
The (outgoing/re-elected, take your pick) prime minister Ulf Kristersson is speaking now.
Let’s see what he is going to say.
Right-leaning bloc ‘still has a chance to win this,’ far-right leader says, as he acknowledges party losses compared to 2022
The far-right Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson is speaking next.
He acknowledges his party has lost a few percentage points compared to 2022, as it most likely loses the status of the second largest party in the country.
But he says how happy he is to see more people “no longer feel uncomfortable” saying they support his party, but “they do so with pride.”
He says the governing bloc “still has a chance to win this,” despite weeks of media commentary “writing us off.”
“We don’t know the exact number, but we are talking about tens of thousands of votes, not hundreds of thousands; a fraction of a percentage point,” he says.
He accepts “we will not find out tonight” who will form the next government.
‘We have to wait a little longer,’ Left leader Dadgostar says as she celebrates her party’s gains
The Left Party’s leader Nooshi Dadgostar is up next.
She points out her party has gained most compared to the 2022 election, with the latest projection giving it 8.1%, up from 6.75% in 2022.
As other leaders, she acknowledges “the result is still unclear; we have to wait a little longer,” and it will be a “nervous” wait.
But says it’s clear her party has done all it could to oust the current government.
Jakub Krupa
“If this [result] stands, Sweden will have a new government” from Magdalena Andersson (00:04) may be the closest we will get to a conclusive result tonight.
With 84% of votes now counted, her left-leaning coalition continues to lead by a single mandate in the new parliament.
Chatting to journalists after her speech, Andersson stresses the need to “keep a cool head” until all the results are in.
But repeatedly pushed on this point by journalists, she says she believes it is possible to form and run a government with a one-seat majority.
She also repeats her call for “a new spirit of cooperation,” including on things like energy policies.
‘If this holds, Sweden will have a new government,’ opposition leader says, but calls for patience as ‘every single vote must be counted’
Andersson begins with praising the beauty of democracy, and everyone having an equal vote, “one of the finest things humanity has ever come up with.”
She also thanks everyone in the party who helped during the campaign, particularly away from TV cameras. “You have achieved something historic,” she says.
She says the party’s future is “bright.”
She says “we await the final result,” and “every single vote cast must be counted.”
“But my message is clear: we, Social Democrats, will always stand ready to take responsibility for the outcome.”
She says the extremely close result of the vote points to the need for “a new spirit of cooperation” in Swedish politics.
But eventually she does make a passing comment on the current provisional results:
“Right now, we are in the lead, and if this holds, Sweden will have a new government. But we must wait for the final result,” she says.
Oh, the Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson is up next.
Let’s see what she says.
(Maybe she is really reading the blog?)
Deputy PM says ‘nailbiting’ election could be undecided until Wednesday
The Christian Democrats leader (and deputy prime minister) Ebba Busch is the next leader to speak.
She comes to stage with a prop – a red ace of hearts – claiming the government parties are now making gains.
She says the election may prove to be “a real nailbiter,” with the final result uncertain until Wednesday.
“Every single vote must be counted,” she says, as she concedes Swedes may go to bed tonight uncertain about who will form the future government.
Liberal leader hails ‘historic’ comeback as party polls above parliamentary threshold
The Liberal party’s leader Simona Mohamsson is unsurprisingly delighted with the projected numbers given her party polled below the threshold not long ago (20:20).
She calls the result “a historic comeback,” and says it shows the party’s hard work during the campaign paid off.
She tells the party faithful to enjoy the moment, and says the outcome of the election is not decided yet.
Jakub Krupa
Interestingly, neither PM Ulf Kristersson nor his main challenger Magdalena Andersson has taken to the stage so far tonight.
They are no doubt reading the blog waiting for the final results.
Centre Party’s leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist is the next party leader to speak tonight and she celebrates “what a campaign we have had.”
She says the party succeeded in making the campaign all about its policies, and “optimism and faith in the future.”
If the current figures hold, her party will marginally improve its 2022 result with 7.1%, up from 6.7%.
