While out on the campaign trail in Makerfield, Andy Burnham gave a glimpse into where he might land on Labour’s plans for immigration reform, which had already been decried by the left of the party as unfair and pushed by the right as electorally necessary.
Asked what he thought of Reform’s attack on “open borders Andy” – Nigel Farage’s early attempt to define him as soft on migration – the then Manchester mayor dismissed the charge as “ridiculous” and went on the defensive.
“I’m not like that. You know me. I was in the Home Office under Tony Blair, and actually, it was my job to return people. That was my specific role,” he said while out knocking on doors in the constituency.
“I used to have to travel to governments around the world and persuade them to take back planes of people who had come here with no basis to stay, so you know, I’ve never have been shy of getting to grips with these difficult issues.”
But Burnham wasn’t just pitching to the Reform-inclined voters he needed to win the seat; he was already charting whatever path he might then need to take if he made it all the way to Downing Street.
While he was supportive of attempts by the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, to limit legal and illegal migration, which had been criticised by some senior Labour figures as un-British, Burnham wanted to reframe the changes.
“I think there’s a different way of thinking about it that might in the end get you to a better position, and one that restores public confidence,” he said.
The prime minister’s political allies say he regards migration as a moral issue, showing people who’ve lost faith in politics that the government does have control over the UK’s borders and is prepared to do something about it.
But he also wants to tell a positive story about the contribution of migration to the country, they say. Weeks after arriving in No 10, the Guardian revealed that social care workers could be exempted from the plans as he looked for ways to relieve pressure on the sector.
In an interview with ITV this week, Burnham again tried to make the case. “When you have planned migration, it’s difficult to say if it’s too high or too low,” he said, arguing that migrants help plug “gaps in the economy”.
In the end, Mahmood’s reforms came with a significant carve-out for almost 300,000 care workers to allow them to apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) after five years.
In a further compromise to those on the Labour benches feeling squeamish, those deemed to be making a “strong contribution” to the UK – high earners, those with strong British connections or who work in health and teaching – will also be able to settle in five years.
But that Burnham approved the bulk of Mahmood’s hardline reforms should not come as a surprise to anybody who has been paying attention. The prime minister, steeped in the politics of the “red wall”, understands better than many the salience of the issue with voters.
The most rigorous of the new rules first drawn up a year ago by the Home Office – retrospective changes for many migrants, and forcing small boats arrivals to face up to 30 years before applying for settlement – are still there.
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How they land with the public (which polling suggests supports a doubling of the waiting time for most migrants to 10 years) now depends in part on whether ministers can convince them it’s about people making a contribution, rather than a U-turn forced by their own side.
The Conservatives and Reform, unsurprisingly, are already pushing the latter narrative, Farage describing the care workers carve-out as “the beginning of the capitulation” on borders.
Burnham is, equally predictably, arguing that it’s about fairness. “It is only fair that those who are making the most valuable contribution to our communities are given the opportunity to settle earlier,” he said.
“Those in other roles should expect to wait longer while people who abuse the system or arrive illegally will be refused or will also have to wait longer.”
But Burnham’s words did not come in the Commons chamber or at a press conference standing alongside Mahmood or even as part of his prolific social media output.
They were instead issued in a press release, after the government chose to push ahead with the sensitive policy announcement while he was out of the country – travelling to the Commonwealth leaders summit in Antigua.
The plans are still likely to face criticism from some on either wing of the Labour party, although plenty of former critics do now appear to be on board. But without an obvious vote to coalesce around, any rebellion looks unlikely.
Mahmood’s bigger challenge will be convincing the public. She will need Burnham, who has praised her for “gripping this problem” so is presumably fully behind them, to help her to do so.
