As early voting gets under way ahead of the Aug. 11 primary, Wisconsin is hurtling toward a gubernatorial matchup between Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, and Northwoods U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a MAGA Republican.
Hong, a 37-year-old former restaurant owner, has emerged as the front-runner in the Democratic primary, growing a lead over her opponents in four consecutive Marquette University Law School polls. Just in the past week, her support increased — from 26% to 38% — among likely Democratic primary voters even after the chaotic maneuvering by candidates earlier this month. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez exited the race after issues with her campaign finance reports, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley restarted his campaign with a rare primary endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers.
Marquette Poll director Charles Franklin described Hong’s position in the latest poll as “a pretty sizable lead.” It’s reminiscent of 2018 when Evers’ support in polls grew over the course of the crowded Democratic primary, Franklin said. Evers won the primary with about 42% of the vote in 2018.
“She’s increased her lead compared to last week, and it’s increased across virtually every demographic group we look at,” Franklin said. “That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an insurmountable lead in the sense that there’s 34% still undecided. But if you look at the trend from a week ago to this week, she’s in a better position than she was then.”
Hong also faced few attacks from her opponents in the first and only televised primary debate held in Milwaukee this week, even as she faces questions about her past social media posts supporting Democratic Socialists of America organization policies such as abolishing the U.S. Senate and abolishing and defunding police. The July 22 Marquette Poll showed 49% of registered voters in Wisconsin have an unfavorable view of the DSA organization and the democratic socialist label.
In Tuesday’s debate, Hong said as governor she would not sign a budget that cuts funding for police departments. She also said she does not support the full platform of the national DSA nor is she endorsed by the national organization, while highlighting bipartisan support her campaign has received for policies like a moratorium on the construction of new AI data centers.
“I am looking forward to helping Democrats become the big tent party that they have aimed to become for many years,” she said.
As Hong rises, some Democrats have questioned whether a democratic socialist can win statewide in November and help down-ballot Democrats. But party leaders have failed to shore up an opponent who can defeat Hong.
Crowley’s reentry with Evers’ endorsement may have muddied the waters, said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and director of the Elections Research Center.
“With in-person voting already underway, it is difficult to see how an issue, scandal, endorsement, or other development can impede her path to the nomination,” Burden said.
The latest Marquette Poll released Wednesday showed that while a majority of potential Democratic primary voters indicated they heard about Evers’ endorsement, it did not make a significant impact on who they would support in the race. Crowley received 7% support among likely primary voters behind Hong at 38% and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 16%.
Crowley said in the last two weeks of the primary campaign he will continue to make the case to voters about why he is the best candidate.
“We still have the same amount of folks when I actually stepped out of this race, right? It’s still five of us,” Crowley said. “So, I truly believe our job is just to make the case. And I do think that folks may be a little bit overwhelmed by how many candidates are in this race and want to make sure they’re making the right choice, but that’s why we’re on the campaign trail.”
Barnes, who was initially seen as the front-runner in the primary due to the name recognition from his 2022 U.S. Senate campaign, took more swipes at Crowley during Tuesday night’s debate, targeting the Milwaukee County executive for his reentry into the race being “revived by special interests.” Barnes’ support remained flat in the two July Marquette polls.
“I think that people should be frustrated. People are tired of having their politics meddled in,” Barnes said after the debate. “People have seen, you know, the power brokers that be meddling in elections time and time again. And because of that meddling, people have been turned off from politics. People don’t show up to vote. They feel as if there is no place for them if the decision is made before they even get a chance to cast a ballot.”
It is increasingly unlikely that any consolidation happens ahead of Aug. 11. Madison state Sen. Kelda Roys and former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan, who have continued to poll in the low single digits, told reporters on Tuesday that they had no intention of leaving the race.
Brennan said he believes potential voters are only just beginning to tune into the race.
“I still think that there are people who are going to come to me and who are going to see that I am the best path to winning a general election and being the best governor,” Brennan said.
“I’ve made that commitment to the voters and my supporters, and I am confident that we are going to make progress as we have continued throughout this race,” Roys said.
Meanwhile, Tiffany, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, also sees Hong as his opponent in November, and the Republican Governor’s Association has run ads casting Hong as being “too liberal for Wisconsin” while highlighting policies, such as abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, that could appeal to Democratic primary voters.
In a statement following the debate, Tiffany took aim at “Socialist Francesca Hong” and highlighted Hong’s past social media posts that called for abolishing the police, prisons and the U.S. Senate.
“While Democrats offer chaos, I’m offering common sense: lower taxes, safer communities, stronger schools, and a government that lets the people of Wisconsin keep more of their hard-earned money,” Tiffany said.
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