A new MRP poll suggests Labour would remain the largest party if a general election were held now, but would fall well short of an overall majority as Reform surged into second place.
Behind those headline figures, research from Survation and 38 Degrees casts new light on five distinct voter groups who are collectively defined as the “progressive majority”. These people share concerns about living costs and the NHS, but differ over immigration, the environment, political trust and the pace of change needed to address the UK’s policies.
To build a parliamentary majority, Labour must hold on to the groups that have remained relatively loyal while winning back voters drifting towards the Greens, Reform or political disengagement. In short, they need enough of this “progressive majority” to stay within the fold.
Labour strategists – including Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney – have often been wary of a tactic that seeks only to unite the progressive bloc. But while it would result in Labour losing huge swathes of seats that it won in 2024, it may be enough to lock Nigel Farage out of No 10 if there were significant tactical voting.
It also gives a clue on how Burnham might seek to structure his priorities – and why the cost of living will be at the heart of his policy platform at the Labour conference, one with salience for voters considering either the Greens or Reform.
The charts below, which are based on polling of more than 8,000 voters, show how Labour’s support cuts across age, class and geography – and reveal five distinct voter groups with contrasting priorities.
The five groups in the ‘progressive majority’
The researchers identified five groups of people who collectively make up what they call the “progressive majority”.
It is a key group of voters they argue the Labour government should be targeting if they want to win an overall majority at the next general election.
The five groups are described as:
Rooted traditionalists: older, economically left-leaning voters who are highly concerned about immigration and less interested in environmental issues. Many moved from the Conservatives to Labour but could shift again, including towards Reform. Cost of living pressures and NHS access provide the strongest common ground with other progressive voters.
Open-hearted idealists: affluent, highly educated and the most socially liberal, pro-immigration and politically engaged group. They lean strongly towards Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems and are particularly open to tactical voting. Bills, NHS access and progressive taxation matter most, while tougher immigration policies risk alienating them.
Quiet persuadables: the youngest and least politically committed segment, often holding centrist or uncertain views. Their support is spread widely across the parties and they are the most likely to vote tactically. They are potentially winnable, but need a compelling reason to engage with politics.
Trusting optimists: young, affluent, urban and highly educated, with strong confidence in their finances, the government and the country’s future. Most support Labour and economically progressive policies, but they are also the most socially authoritarian group. Their political loyalty could weaken if their circumstances deteriorate.
Struggling sceptics: the least financially secure, trusting and electorally engaged group, with many believing voting changes little. Although economically left-leaning, their support is divided between Labour, the Greens and Reform. Winning them back could depend on tangible improvements to bills, wages and living standards rather than political messaging alone.
There are clear demographic differences between the groups.
Quiet persuadables are the youngest-leaning group, while very few rooted traditionalists are young – with more than a third of them aged over 65.
Trusting optimists are twice as likely as voters overall to live in London, while rooted traditionalists are half as likely.
Struggling sceptics are most likely to have no or low-level qualifications. Meanwhile, almost two-thirds of trusting optimists are graduates.
While nearly a third of struggling sceptics are in lower-income households, trusting optimists and open-hearted idealists are the most affluent groups, with most households earning more than £40,000.
Rooted traditionalists are overwhelmingly white, while trusting optimists are by far the most ethnically diverse group.
Meanwhile, rooted traditionalists and struggling sceptics contain the most leave voters, while open-hearted idealists are overwhelmingly remain-aligned.
How the ‘progressive majority’ is intending to vote
These five constituent groups collectively account for nine in 10 current Labour voters.
This is up from eight in 10 at the 2024 general election, showing that Labour’s support has become more concentrated among progressive voters in the last two years.
Open-hearted idealists now provide the largest share of Labour’s support at 28%, followed by quiet persuadables at 21%. Trusting optimists have recorded the largest increase, rising four percentage points in the last two years.
At the time of polling, Labour led among all five progressive voter groups – although support ranged from 25% among struggling sceptics to 57% among trusting optimists.
Open-hearted idealists lean heavily towards progressive parties, with the Greens being supported by 23% of this group.
Struggling sceptics are the most fragmented group: Labour leads on 25%, but the Greens and Reform both attract substantial support. Thirteen per cent remain undecided – the highest rate of any group.
Reform performed relatively strongly among rooted traditionalists, whereas the Conservatives reached their highest level among quiet persuadables.
The shifts since 2024 are often down to the fact that, while Labour has lost support across the board, some of these groups are more likely to have found another political home – despite the government switching prime minister.
The Greens have gained the most support among open-hearted idealists, while Reform’s rise is most concentrated among struggling sceptics and rooted traditionalists.
The struggling sceptics are the group among which Labour has lost the most support, falling from 39% to 28%. Both the Greens and Reform have gained among these people, rising to 21% and 18% respectively.
The quiet persuadables and trusting optimists are the groups that have stuck the most with Labour, recording only small drops in support since the general election.
While this is likely due to the stronger financial position of the trusting optimistics, who are more likely to trust progressive politicians, the quiet persuadables are less committed to politics and generally don’t hold stronger political views.
Conflicting policy priorities – but ‘manageable’ divides
Looking at the concerns of these five groups reveals conflicting priorities which could be hard for the prime minister, Andy Burnham, to bridge.
The cost of living is the dominant concern across every progressive voter group, cited by between 54% and 77%.
Health and the NHS generally ranks second, peaking at 56% among open-hearted idealists, while the economy is a significant but less prominent concern across all groups.
The sharpest divide is over immigration: it is cited by 34% of rooted traditionalists and 28% of struggling sceptics, but just 5% of pen-hearted idealists.
The climate crisis shows a reverse pattern, reaching 29% among open-hearted idealists but only 10% among rooted traditionalists.
Rooted traditionalists are also notably more concerned about pensions, while housing and jobs feature more strongly among trusting optimists and quiet persuadables.
When looking at the salience of different issues among voters as a whole, the research concluded that immigrationis the area where Labour is least trusted – but also that this might not be a significant vulnerability.
It is named as a vote-deciding issue by 40% of voters – level with the NHS and second only to the cost of living – but Reform leads Labour on it by 10 points. Thirty-one per cent of the public trust Reform on this issue, compared with 21% trusting Labour.
But the researchers point to the fact that these figures are population-wide, and that immigration is not a driving factor in the votes of most people within the progressive majority. Instead, the cost of living and the economy are bigger drivers of people’s votes.
Across the public as a whole, Labour led Reform on every other major issue, including the NHS by 12 points and the cost of living by six.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder and chief executive of Survation, said: “Labour’s potential coalition is best understood as five distinct segments making up a ‘progressive majority’ – those voters that strongly consider voting for one or more of Lib Dems, Labour, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP. They have very different views on social and economic policy – the balancing act is real – but our data suggests it’s more manageable than the conventional wisdom implies.
“The issues that divide these groups, immigration above all, are largely ones where Labour isn’t trusted and where the voters it could win are already spoken for. The issues that unite them – the cost of living, energy, food and housing bills, and cleaning up politics – are exactly where even the most sceptical parts of the coalition trust Labour more than anyone else. The way to build such a winning coalition isn’t to referee their disagreements. It’s to deliver visibly on the concerns every one of them shares.”
