The national security of all countries is at risk from the climate crisis, as “science fiction” scenarios of widespread destruction are already coming true and economic shocks from fossil fuels are now the norm rather than the exception, the UK’s foreign secretary is to warn world leaders gathered in Turkey.
Ed Miliband will tell the Cop31 UN climate summit on Wednesday that security and defence objectives are the new “frontier” of climate action, because the rapid heating of the planet will lead to food shortages, widespread economic disruption, migration and conflict.
“National security is the next frontier of the fight for climate action; the scenarios once of science fiction are now regular occurrences in the daily news,” Miliband told the Guardian before his speech to world leaders and governments in Antalya.
“We should be clear that climate breakdown is one of the greatest national security threats we face. Food security, threats to infrastructure, and population movements [are resulting from the climate crisis],” he said.
In a veiled swipe at the Conservatives and Reform UK, which want to scrap efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, he added: “Those who seek to stick their heads in the sand on climate are putting our national security at risk.”
Miliband arrived in Turkey on Tuesday evening for the two-day leaders’ summit segment on Wednesday and Thursday of the fortnight-long Cop31 talks, which started on Monday.
Andy Burnham, the UK prime minister, is expected to travel on Wednesday for a series of bilateral meetings with fellow world leaders on Thursday.
Anthony Albanese, the prime minister of Australia, and the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will open the leaders’ summit segment on Wednesday. There will also be speeches by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, which hosted last year’s Cop, and the prime minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, who will host next year’s meeting.
However, several heads of leading countries are skipping this year’s Cop, including China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, will attend.
Miliband will argue that the world must now face the consequences of failures to cut carbon emissions over the past three decades. “It is a disaster for people and the planet, and we must reckon with its implications,” he will tell audiences at Cop31 on Wednesday. “It will drive hardship and insecurity for billions of people.”
He will note that an “overshoot” of the crucial threshold of 1.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, is now inevitable, as temperatures have exceeded that level for two years and are unlikely to subside significantly. This “overshoot” requires stronger policies to ensure heating does not accelerate, and to seek ways of returning temperatures to safer levels in decades to come.
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Fossil fuel shocks, such as the soaring oil price seen this year after the start of the Iran war, which has led to rampant inflation and interest rate rises from central banks in an effort to control it, will wreak further harm, according to Miliband.
He told the Guardian: “A new era of global insecurity means fossil fuel shocks are now the norm – the fossil fuel rollercoaster is here to stay. First Russia, now Iran, next others, have identified global chokepoints and systemic overreliance [on fossil fuels] and the vulnerability of countries around the world that they expose.”
He said the only answer was to “double down” on measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to the effects of extreme weather. “Next year will be the year of climate fightback, as governments, movements and communities across the world step up to defend our shared home.”
Miliband will call for more investment in clean energy and efforts to use it for transport and heating, as well as urgent action to cut methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, and protect and expand forests.
However, Burnham’s government is under fire in the UK for a series of recent and looming policy interventions that campaigners say will push the country off-track from its target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and set a poor example to the rest of the world.
The government plans to weaken a mandate for carmakers to ensure more of their vehicles are electric by 2030, and has given the green light to a new gasfield, Jackdaw, in the North Sea, while considering licensing a new oilfield, Rosebank, west of Shetland.
