Democrats Seize Congress, Statehouses in Referendum on the Economy

Democrats on Tuesday won control of both houses of Congress and a decisive mandate to put a check on Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency, a victory propelled by voter anger over high prices, corruption and the unchecked spread of data centers.

Some of the same concerns helped to lift Democrats to victories in statehouses, where they gained a majority of the country’s governorships for the first time in more than a decade.

Voters in Ohio, South Carolina and Texas—states Trump won by double digits two years ago—put Democrats over the top in the U.S. Senate. And the Democratic wave surmounted a seawall of money: the unprecedented spending the GOP’s tech industry allies poured into the races in recent weeks to protect the status quo and their freedom from regulation.

Activists believe the result sets the stage for renewed environmental and climate policy, even though candidates seldom mentioned those issues by name in their campaigns. They argue that any action Congress takes on voters’ top issues—soaring energy prices, undue industry influence and the surge of artificial intelligence infrastructure—will curb the upward trajectory of U.S. fossil fuel consumption that Trump has encouraged. 

“Voters rejected the Trump administration’s failing energy policies, which have pushed electricity bills higher,” said David Kieve, president of EDF Action, the political arm of the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund, which invested $18 million in the midterms. “Families know that blocking clean energy raises rates. Paying companies to abandon wind projects, canceling grants meant to lower rural utility bills, and using emergency orders to keep coal plants running when cleaner, cheaper options are available all moved us in the wrong direction.”

A Broad Reaction to Republican Policies

A president’s party typically loses seats in Congress in midterm elections, and in the face of that history, Trump urged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” The results indicated that voters listened. Trump’s sagging approval became a millstone Republicans were forced to carry, as opponents attacked them for their complicity in an unpopular war that had caused U.S. energy prices to soar. (The decision to unilaterally join Israel in airstrikes against Iran on Feb. 28 resulted in “incalculable political damage for Trump’s party,” political pundit Charlie Cook wrote on the eve of the election.)

In unfortunate timing for Republicans, the U.S. oil industry last week reported its profits—$130 billion over the past six months, or triple the earnings of one year ago, all due to the war-related run-up in prices. On the campaign trail, Trump tried to frame the oil industry’s boon as a blessing for Americans.

“They’re making hundreds of billions of dollars—our country is—on oil,” Trump said at an Oct. 26 rally in Georgia. Trump said his advisers warned him not to mention that “because people are paying a little bit higher,” but he said he didn’t care how his words would be portrayed. “I don’t give a damn,” he said. “We’re making a freaking fortune!”

But Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) seemed to better capture the mood of his state’s voters in his last days of campaigning for reelection: “Under failed president Donald J. Trump, it costs more than ever in American history to fill up your truck, stock your fridge, visit the doctor or power your home.” Ossoff coasted to re-election as expected, and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms defeated Republican Rick Jackson to win the Georgia governor’s race.

Opposition to data centers helped Democrats in many races, such as in Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown staged a political comeback and defeated Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Brown dubbed his opponent “the face of data centers,” and sought to tie Husted to tax breaks and other policies that have attracted the giant computing centers to Ohio.

Trump’s foes—including environmental groups—blanketed the airwaves in swing states and districts with ads tying the pain of high gasoline and electricity prices to cozy Republican relationships with oil and utility companies, tech giants and the insurance industry. “Voters are not simply frustrated, they’re angry at monopoly utility companies, Big Tech, and Big Oil, who are making record profits while families struggle,” said Sara Schreiber, senior vice president of LCV Victory Fund. The super PAC of the League of Conservation Voters became one of the leading outside issues groups supporting Democrats on both state and federal ballots, with a $110 million investment in the midterms.

Cabinet members like Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins fanned out into states like Iowa where Republicans were in deep trouble. They touted Trump deregulatory policies and offered aid to farmers. But pre-election polling showed key Trump administration messages on environmental protection fell flat. More than 70 percent of likely voters in Iowa, Ohio and Texas felt rollback of environmental regulations would have either no impact on making their lives more affordable or would make things more expensive, according to early October polling by The Cook Political Report, New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group.

And the polling showed voters were more worried about the inflationary impact of Republican energy policies than Democratic climate policies. About 60 percent blamed “Republicans’ support for the war with Iran, trade wars, and billions in giveaways for data centers” for high energy prices; only about 40 percent said they were more concerned about “Democrats’ radical environmental policies like the Green New Deal.”

James Talarico overcame a fusillade of tech industry money to become the first Democrat that Texas will send to the U.S. Senate in 33 years. The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, alone contributed an unprecedented $445 million to super PACs, much of it to bolster Talarico’s scandal-plagued Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico made Musk’s effort to buy the seat an issue in the campaign, which resonated in a state that has been convulsed over the spread of Big Tech facilities. 

Across the country, 56 percent of voters said data centers were a crucial or major factor in their picks for Congress, according to polling by The Wall Street Journal. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeing the tidal wave of opposition grow, imposed a temporary moratorium on new facilities in Texas. But his moves were not enough to win him re-election. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa will become the first Democratic governor of Texas since Ann Richards left office in 1995.

After pulling off her surprise victory in the South Carolina Senate race, Democrat Annie Andrews spoke of the moment as a rebellion against the status quo. “You have shown the nation that in this era of partisan divides, of vitriol and name calling, in a politics dominated by billionaires and special interest groups and insiders in Washington, D.C., that we will not bow down, that we will not back down, and we will chart our own course,” she told her supporters.

As Washington enters a period of divided government, governors and state legislatures will have an opportunity to lead on climate and energy policy in ways that the federal government won’t or can’t.

Democrats retained governors’ offices in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, flipped control from Republicans in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas, and were on track to add other wins in closely watched races.

“Because of your hard work, Ohio has chosen unity and decency over division and hate,” said Ohio Governor-elect Amy Acton, a former director of the state public health agency. 

Democrats also won the two open seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, a utility regulator, giving the party a 3-2 edge. The panel had been controlled by Republicans for decades and the new majority has an opportunity to address consumer concerns about rising utility bills. 

Oversight Ahead

A key win for climate came early in the night with the re-election of Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), despite Florida Republicans’ failed efforts at redistricting to favor the GOP. Castor, who represents storm-prone Tampa, served as chair of the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis during Trump’s first term and has been leader of a project to develop a legislative agenda on the economy and environment for the new Congress. The so-called Thriving Economies Project unveiled a menu of 800 policy recommendations in September designed to win bipartisan support, many of them tapping into the concerns that animated voters in the midterms. (One example: Creating a Strategic Energy Affordability Reserve, drawing from windfall oil and gas profits.) 

Although Democrats were on track to exceed projections and net nearly 30 House seats, they won’t be able to pass legislation without Republican support. There simply were not enough seats in play to give them a veto-proof majority. The most immediate and concrete change they can force in Washington is the kind of oversight of the Trump administration that has been missing for two years. Democratic House leaders already have signaled plans to call Zeldin and other cabinet members to task over their deep cutbacks in staff and science investments. And investigations are expected to examine the growing influence of the tech industry in reshaping American landscapes, life and even foreign policy. A leading target is the man who invested more money than anyone else in a failed effort to fend off Tuesday’s Democratic wave: Elon Musk.