In one of this year’s most competitive Senate races, Republicans are refusing to spend money — so far.
That peculiar dynamic is playing out in Texas, where the fate of the Republican nominee, Ken Paxton, will help decide which party controls the U.S. Senate. But Mr. Paxton has struggled to raise cash, and no one has stepped in yet to help him.
Mr. Paxton finds himself in a unique situation among Senate candidates, according to interviews with a dozen Republicans with ties to his campaign. Republican donors still hold grudges from a bruising primary. The state, with its 18-plus television markets, is an epically expensive setting. And his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, has proved to be a particularly strong fund-raiser.
Perhaps the most striking piece of Mr. Paxton’s money woes is the high-stakes game of chicken that two of the Republican Party’s biggest money committees, along with their allied donors, are playing.
Both of those groups, the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc., are not so secretly hoping that the other one swoops in to boost Mr. Paxton with tens of millions in spending, the Republicans said. Neither group has reached for its wallet yet.
“Somebody is going to have to spend big money,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil executive who is raising contributions for Mr. Paxton. “We’ll see who blinks.”
In the primary, Mr. Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn, a favorite of many of the country’s and state’s largest donors. The Republican nominee still lacks enthusiasm from these contributors, who financed ads in the primary repeatedly calling him a criminal and a womanizer. Their opinions largely haven’t changed, especially with the continuing drumbeat of revelations of Mr. Paxton’s world travels with his girlfriend, the Republicans said.
Mr. Paxton is not getting help from Washington, either. National Republican groups are slated to spend tens of millions of dollars this summer and fall in every other top-tier Senate race, including in some states that prominent handicappers think are not as competitive as Texas. They even plan to spend more in noncompetitive Kansas. In most states, Republicans are expected to outspend Democrats — for instance in Ohio, where the G.O.P. commitment totals over $100 million.
A Paxton adviser disputed concerns about his campaign’s financial straits.
“The trajectory is unmistakable: Support is accelerating, not softening. Everyone from grass-roots Texans to large conservative donors are consolidating behind this campaign, and June was the clearest signal yet,” said Nick Maddux, the adviser, touting what he said was $7 million raised last month across Paxton committees.
There’s also the fact that Democratic Senate candidates in the state have not won despite out-raising or out-spending Republicans in the last few cycles.
Republicans say that Texas requires around $15 million a week in super PAC advertising to mount a comprehensive paid-media campaign, making Texas more a drain on resources than cheaper states that could also decide the majority.
The amount of Republican spending planned in Texas from now through Election Day, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm: $0.
So who should pick up the Texas tab?
First, there’s the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC run by allies of John Thune, the Senate majority leader. It backed Mr. Cornyn in the primary and has hardly embraced Mr. Paxton.
During a June trip to Washington, Mr. Paxton met with officials of the super PAC at its headquarters and told them that he hoped the race wouldn’t be so close to warrant a heavy spend, two people with knowledge of the meeting said.
The Senate Leadership Fund is funding polling and candidate research in the race and has told donors it is monitoring the state. Even so, the super PAC conspicuously left out Texas when unveiling a $342 million plan in eight other states. Allies said that the Senate Leadership Fund didn’t have millions lying around to invest in another race, especially given the year’s volatile map, including fresh uncertainty over the Montana Senate race.
Staring across the table is MAGA Inc., a super PAC run by top advisers to President Trump with an extraordinary $400 million cash reserve. His endorsement of Mr. Paxton the week before the May runoff election dealt a death blow to Mr. Cornyn. Some Republican donors close to the Senate Leadership Fund say that MAGA Inc., which has yet to reveal how much it will spend on the midterms, should therefore be on the hook for whatever bill is due in Texas.
MAGA Inc. officials say there is no impasse with the Senate Leadership Fund, claiming they are simply being discreet with their spending plans, which they said last month would be “very soon” and “substantial.” Chris LaCivita and James Blair, two of MAGA Inc.’s top officials, have spoken in recent weeks about Texas with Alex Latcham, who heads the Senate Leadership Fund, according to two people with knowledge of the conversations.
“I think his PAC should help Ken, and I can’t imagine they wouldn’t,” said Doug Deason, whose family has donated $410,000 to Paxton committees this year, of Mr. Trump. “He endorsed him. He wants to keep the Senate. And obviously we don’t want a Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas.”
That Democrat, Mr. Talarico, entered July holding about nine times as much cash in his principal campaign account than Mr. Paxton does in his. Since June, Mr. Talarico has been up on television, airing about $12 million in ads to introduce himself to voters. He is also raising money aggressively, including a high-dollar event near Chicago last Saturday and others in Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket this weekend, according to invitations viewed by The Times.
To some extent, national Democrats are experiencing the same paralysis as Republicans. The Senate Majority PAC, controlled by Senate Democrats, unveiled new spending last week but has not reserved any ad time in Texas.
Still, Mr. Talarico’s own ability to raise enormous amounts of money himself makes him less dependent on Washington than Mr. Paxton is. Plus, last month, a dedicated pro-Talarico super PAC received $10 million from the tech investor Reid Hoffman.
And in private conversations with donors, Senate Majority PAC officials have outlined various potential spending plans for Texas and the trade-offs those might require across the Senate map, giving Democrats the impression that the PAC is preparing to spend in Texas at some point, according to two people briefed on the conversations.
All of this makes fund-raising an urgent priority this summer for Mr. Paxton. Yet his relationships with donors in the state remain frosty, including the Texas network of former President George W. Bush, which he has regularly criticized. Holdouts include moderates like the G.O.P. megadonor Ken Griffin, who is said to have no plans to help Mr. Paxton, and longtime right-wing backers like the oil industry’s Wilks brothers and Tim Dunn.
Mr. Paxton has made individual calls to some Cornyn-aligned givers seeking six-figure checks, a person with knowledge said. But some Cornyn donors have declined even to return calls from the Paxton camp, multiple Republicans said.
Mr. Paxton is hosting a fund-raising dinner this Thursday in Aspen, Colo., according to an invitation viewed by The Times, and one in Jackson Hole, Wyo., later this summer. Senator Ted Cruz formed a joint fund-raising committee with him this month to coordinate fund-raising events, such as a recent one at a hotel in Houston owned by Tilman Fertitta, the owner of the N.B.A.’s Rockets.
Last Wednesday in Washington on Capitol Hill, Mr. Thune more fully embraced Mr. Paxton than previously, throwing him a fund-raiser at the Safari Club International and pledging he would not abandon Texas, according to an attendee. Another Republican senator, Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, predicted that outside groups would in August spend big for Mr. Paxton. He didn’t specify which.
Lauren McGaughy contributed reporting.
