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Continuing a trend that has defined federal elections since the Supreme Court upended campaign finance law in 2010, OpenSecrets’ analysis of Federal Election Commission disclosure data shows that when all the reporting is in, we will have another record midterm election, with total spending reaching $11.9 billion.
In 2022 the midterms cost $8.9 billion, or $10.2 in inflation-adjusted dollars. With the 2026 election expected to reach $11.9 billion, it will surpass the total spent on congressional elections in 2024 as well.
Outside spending, driven by super PACs, is fueling the increased spending. In 2022, outside spending totaled $2 billion. Our analysis shows it is expected to reach $3.9 billion in 2026, an 85% increase. As outside spending has increased, so have dark money contributions to the super PACs spending on the election. This year’s midterm total of $1.47 billion has already exceeded the $1.35 billion from 2024, which included congressional and presidential races.
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Outside spending favors Republican by $360 million
There is a distinct disparity when examining the outside spending totals with a party lens. Conservative groups have been vastly outspending their counterparts on the left. Our current tally has conservative groups outspending liberal groups $2.03 billion to $1.67, a difference of $360 million. The top two spending groups, as of Oct. 30, are the Senate Leadership Fund at $489 million and MAGA Inc. at $353 million.
The Senate Leadership Fund is affiliated with the Republican leadership in the Senate and has consistently been one the most prolific outside spenders going back to 2016. MAGA Inc., a super PAC linked to President Donald Trump, has provided Republicans with an unprecedented boost this election year. No other second-term president has raised money to this extent, nearly $450 million, for a committee that they control. After much speculation as to how or whether Trump would spend this war chest, MAGA Inc. has doled out nearly all of its $353 million in outlays since the beginning of September.
On the liberal side, spending has been spearheaded by two super PACs linked to the House and Senate Democratic leadership. Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC have spent $248 million and $192 million, respectively. A last-minute player on the left has been Lower Costs Now, a new super PAC affiliated with Future Forward PAC, which was instrumental in supporting the Harris campaign in 2024. Lower Costs Now has spent $75 million since Oct. 1.
Democratic candidates outspend Republicans by $800 million
Amid all the discussion of super PACs and outside spending, it can be easy to forget about candidate fundraising. Despite the fact that candidates are constrained by contribution limits, which cap an individual’s donations at $7,000 per cycle, candidate fundraising remains crucial and still generates billions of dollars – which in turn generates billions of dollars in spending by candidates. We expect that by the end of the cycle House and Senate candidates will have spent approximately $3.7 billion out of their campaign accounts.
Much like the stark difference between left and right in outside spending, the gap between Democratic and Republican candidates is substantial, except in this case the Democrats are ahead. The Democratic candidate fundraising machine has kept churning after the party’s record-breaking totals in the 2024 presidential election. OpenSecrets expects Democratic candidates to spend more than $2.2 billion by the end of the cycle compared to only $1.4 billion for Republican candidates. The substantial gap in spending at the candidate level enables the Democrats to make up for the advantage Republicans have in outside spending.
This gap is particularly pronounced on the Senate side, where Democratic candidates are projected to spend almost $1 billion compared to less than $500 million for Republicans. Much of this difference comes out of two races.
In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico has broken records, bringing in nearly $145 million, dwarfing rival Ken Paxton (R), who has raised only $22 million and has had to rely on substantial resources from outside groups like the Senate Leadership Fund and its affiliated super PAC, Texas PAC. And in Georgia the incumbent, Jon Ossoff (D), has raised $115 million since January 2025 for his re-election campaign, compared to his opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R), who has been able to raise only $6.5 million.
Megadonors drive up totals with 9-figure contributions
Where do the billions of dollars that fuel outside spending come from? Ultra wealthy individuals and organizations. The undisputed leader among these megadonors is Elon Musk, who has blown past his record-setting 2024 total of nearly $300 million in contributions to conservative committees. Current disclosure records show Musk has given $445 million to federal committees this year. This includes money to America PAC ($215 million), the super PAC that he personally started and funded. He has also given $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, as of Oct.14.
While Musk stands alone above other megadonors, he’s not the only one making enormous contributions. Others giving more than $100 million include billionaires Michael Bloomberg, Richard Uihlein and Jeffrey Yass.
Organizations can also give to super PACs. This cycle two groups, Geosor Corp. and Fund for Policy Reform, both linked to the billionaire financier George Soros, have combined to give over $102 million to liberal groups. Crypto companies have also been very active this cycle, with Ripple and Coinbase combining to give $63 million to fund super PACs promoting the crypto industry’s interests.
Dark money contributions will surpass $1.5 billion
While super PACs have to file regular reports with the Federal Election Commission and include their contributors, often those contributors are entities that shield their funding from public view, such as nonprofits or shell corporations. One way OpenSecrets can track this “dark money” in the election is by identifying donors to super PACs that represent dark money.
OpenSecrets has already tracked nearly $1.47 billion in dark contributions to outside spending groups this election cycle. This estimate is a lower bound, since we have not finished classifying every contribution from the final pre-general election FEC reports filed Oct. 22, but already exceeds the record set in 2024 ($1.35 billion), despite the fact that 2024 included the presidential election as well. The total will likely rise, since in past cycles many of the largest dark contributions were not disclosed until the post-general election FEC reports were filed.
Methodology
OpenSecrets acquires disclosure data filed with the Federal Election Commission by candidates, political party committees, political action committees, and super PACs, as well as individuals or other groups who file outside spending reports with the FEC. Because substantial amounts of money move between these entities, OpenSecrets specifically focuses on reported spending, while excluding transfers between committees.
For outside spending groups, we count spending activity (rather than contributions) reported to the FEC, such as independent expenditure reports. Super PACs often send large contributions to other super PACs; this method eliminates double counting any of those. Since a significant portion of expenditures have not been disclosed yet, we estimate the final total based on reviewing data from previous midterm election cycles.
