The impending signal, therefore, suggests that bitcoin’s price recovery over the past three months is real. The token’s price has surged by more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter. Lately, the ascent has stalled at around $85,000 amid a sustained uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index.
“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.
Some of the past alignments have marked the start of major rallies. One formed on Oct. 27, 2020, when BTC traded around $13,600, and held until May 2021. By then, bitcoin had hit a then-record high above $64,000. Another, confirmed in early November 2023, stayed intact until May 2024, during which bitcoin more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.
Others have been far less rewarding. The bullish alignment that formed in June 2025 lasted 97 days, but bitcoin gained only modestly, rising from about $106,000 to $112,000. A similar set-up in June 2024 lasted just 20 days, and bitcoin fell about 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”
He explained that the real test now is whether bitcoin’s spot price can continue to stay above its 50-day average.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.
