Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in September 2026 that he had prepared for the chance that U.S. President Donald Trump might order military action against Canada.
The New York Times paraphrased Carney, who said he had prepared during the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that Trump might order military action against Canada. Carney also noted that he had been in regular contact with Trump. We have reached out to Carney’s office to learn more.
In September 2026, a rumor spread online that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had said Canada was prepared for an invasion from the U.S. One X post (archived) making the claim read:
Mark Carney told The New York Times in an interview on Wednesday that he studied the possibility of Donald Trump launching a military invasion of Canada, arguing that “it would be irresponsible not to” prepare for such a scenario.
While Carney did say that he had prepared over the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that Trump might order a military invasion of Canada, his remarks were partly paraphrased by The New York Times. He also noted that he had been in frequent contact with Trump. Therefore we rate this claim as true with additional context.
Snopes reached out to Carney’s office to determine his exact words and will update this report if we receive a response.
On Sept. 23, 2026, Carney spoke to The New York Times. According to the report:
Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said that he had prepared over the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that President Trump might order military action against Canada, but disclosed that the two men have spoken “frequently,” even since trade talks collapsed last month, describing a tense, evolving relationship.
The Times asked Carney about whether he took Trump’s repeated threats to annex Canada and make it the 51st U.S. state seriously. Carney, while declining to comment on details, said, “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk.” The Times then paraphrased part of his next statement:
“That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.
Carney also said about his communication with Trump:
From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues … He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are. It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.
For further reading, Snopes has covered numerous rumors about Carney.
Sources
“Carney Lays Out His Vision for Breaking Canada’s Reliance on U.S.” The New York Times, 23 Sept. 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/world/canada/mark-carney-canada-us-trump-tariffs.html. Accessed 25 Sept. 2026.
Rascouët-Paz, Anna. “7 Rumors about Canada’s Carney We’ve Unpacked.” Snopes, 1 Sept. 2025, https://www.snopes.com//collections/mark-carney-collection/. Accessed 25 Sept. 2026.
Sutherland, Callum. “Does Trump Still Plan to Annex Canada?” TIME, 25 June 2025, https://time.com/7297490/trump-plan-to-annex-canada-51st-state-mark-carney/. Accessed 25 Sept. 2026.
