Bitcoin Breaks Out as Nasdaq Hits Records and Oil Slides on Iran Hopes

Bitcoin punched through $86,500 on Tuesday, holding just above the ceiling that had capped its rally through most of September. The move puts total crypto market capitalization above $3 trillion, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading 79—solidly in “greed” territory—and the Altcoin Season Index at 49, meaning Bitcoin still leads even as altcoins start moving.

The breakout lines up with a broader risk-on mood on Wall Street. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record Monday, up 2.26% for its best day since June, as AI-linked names ripped higher—Intel jumped 12%, AMD gained about 10% and crossed a $1 trillion market cap. Chipmakers extended their rally into Tuesday, marking their longest winning stretch since April.

Tuesday’s session was calmer. The Nasdaq is up 0.4% today, touching a fresh intraday high, while the S&P 500 barely budged. Oil did the heavy lifting instead.

Brent crude briefly slipped below $98 a barrel and WTI fell under $93, their lowest since September 8, after reports that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days if Washington eases pressure.

President Donald Trump told the U.N. General Assembly he expects a deal with Iran “right after the election,” referring to November’s midterms, while Saudi Arabia works to restart its East-West pipeline by the weekend.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. Hot inflation data forced the move: the Producer Price Index accelerated to 5.4% annually in August, and gasoline drove a third of that month’s CPI gain.

But even while hiking, the Fed hasn’t stopped buying money into the system. It resumed regular purchases of short-term Treasury bills in December 2025 and has continued doing so to keep bank reserves “ample,” a technical operation distinct from rate policy. Those purchases absorb Treasury supply and keep cash flowing to buyers of risk assets, working somewhat against the hike’s tightening effect. It’s a rare combination: higher rates, but a Fed balance sheet no longer draining the system.

The Fed’s bond holdings sit near $6.7 trillion, still well below the $9 trillion peak of 2022 but no longer shrinking.

On the chart, Bitcoin’s daily setup backs up the rally. Price cleared the zone between $79,673 and $84,144 and is now testing a trajectory to around $90K.

At the moment, Bitcoin is finally again in a golden cross, a pattern traders widely recognize as bullish that forms when the average price of the last 50 days crosses on top of the average price of the last 200 days.

If bulls keep control, the natural resistances and supports known as Fibonacci extensions put the next targets at $90,763 and $95,074. A failure to hold the $79,673 zone on a pullback opens the door back to $75,436 and then $73,617, the last defended support zones from the summer.

BitcoinBTC · USD

$86,176+13%

24H7D1M1YYTD

Sep 16Sep 18Sep 19Sep 21Sep 23

$87.2k$83.3k$79.5k$75.6k

24h HighHigh$87,251

24h LowLow$85,555

VolVol$1.7B

Market projectionsOdds by Myriad

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$50$100$500

Buy

Sentiment on prediction markets is moving in the direction you might expect. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are pricing in 48% odds that Bitcoin hits $90,000 this month, against 25% odds it heads to $92,500.

Altcoins are catching a bid too. XRP climbed to $1.57, Solana gained 18.2% over the week, and Zcash extended its multi-month tear to $1,551, up 36.7% over seven days. Of the top 100 coins, 97 are reporting a positive performance over the last seven days.

The Fed’s next policy meeting lands October 27-28, when markets will learn whether September’s hike was a one-off response to an oil shock or the first of several planned this year. Its median 2026 projection puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% by year-end.