After less than a year and a half in office, Germany’s beleaguered chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is already looking like a lame duck leader. Anticipating dire results in two state elections which were held on Sunday, Mr Merz cancelled a planned speech at this week’s United Nations general assembly in order to plot an emergency response. A night of extraordinary humiliation for his conservative Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) must have confounded even his own low expectations.
In the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) won its second regional election this month with 38% of the vote. The CDU meanwhile recorded its worst result since the second world war, failing even to meet the 5% threshold for representation in the state parliament. Mr Merz took over the leadership of the CDU promising to see off the threat of the AfD. Instead it has ascended to a menacing and unprecedented position of electoral strength, and enjoys a comfortable lead in national polls.
In the other regional contest, the CDU ceded control of the mayoralty in Berlin and finished second behind the radical Left party, which campaigned on a platform to address the capital’s soaring housing crisis. These were seminal reverses, but Mr Merz shows no sign of learning the lessons from either defeat. Defiantly dismissing speculation over his future, he insisted that his coalition government was “determined to live up to the historic responsibilities our country is facing”.
Without a change of political direction that seems improbable. Suffering from depopulation and persistent inequalities relative to the west, Germany’s eastern regions have been particularly vulnerable to the rise of one of Europe’s most extreme far-right movements. But as the continent’s powerhouse economy struggles with Chinese competition, US protectionism, and a cost of living crisis, there is nationwide disillusionment with the chancellor’s abrasive style and “tough love” prescriptions. Mr Merz’s personal poll ratings hover at a record low of around 13%.
Doubling down on a programme which includes raising the retirement age, cutting health insurance benefits, and making it much more difficult to claim sick leave, is hardly likely to turn those numbers around. The Social Democratic party (SPD), as the junior coalition partner, has attempted to act as a partial brake on the chancellor’s pro-austerity instincts. But as one of its despairing MPs acidly observed of Mr Merz: “He constantly asks people to work more, while tens of thousands of jobs are currently being cut in German industry!”
The constitutional obstacles to removing a chancellor – and the reality that neither the CDU nor the SPD want a new election given the state of their respective polling – mean that Mr Merz is likely to stay in post. But if the government’s fortunes are to revive, a radical rethink is required. The chancellor’s unsuccessful strategy for spiking the AfD’s guns has been to ape its draconian positions on immigration. But it is the failure to address a crisis in living standards and widespread economic insecurity which allows the far right to channel a growing protest vote.
That is deeply worrying. On Monday, Mr Merz emphasised that Germany’s “democratic future” must be defended. He was right to emphasise how much is at stake. But it is becoming increasingly and alarmingly clear how ill-suited he is for that task.
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