The Liberal Democrats have begun work on a new manifesto in case of a possible snap election, as Ed Davey said he understood the frustrations of some of his MPs who fear that the party’s message is currently at risk of being lost.
But Davey also urged his party not to panic at static polling numbers, arguing that with tactical voting and fragmented political loyalties, he fully expects the party to do even better at the next election than in 2024, when it won 72 seats, the highest total for a century.
Speaking ahead of the party’s annual conference in Brighton, Davey warned that discipline and focus were vital, given what he described as their “moral responsibility” in blocking a Reform-led government, predicting that Kemi Badenoch would eventually seek an alliance with Nigel Farage’s party.
A manifesto working group, led by the Cheadle MP Tom Morrison, has already been created, Davey said, meaning the party can be ready if Andy Burnham calls an election. “We don’t normally do it this early,” he said.
The Lib Dems already have a number of policies in place, including an economic proposal based around seeking to rejoin the EU’s single market, with a similarly Brussels-focused immigration policy of signing up to a Europe-wide pact on migration and asylum.
The party’s national poll ratings are largely static at about 12% or 13%, with the Lib Dems spending much of this year in fifth place behind Reform, Labour, the Conservatives and a resurgent Green party.
Some of Davey’s MPs complain privately about what they see as an overly slow and cautious approach to both policy and rhetoric, saying this has sidelined the party from the national debate.
However, it is by no means a unanimous view, with others saying the pace has picked up since the appointment of the party’s new political director James Holt, a veteran of the coalition years who then spent nearly a decade working with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
Davey said he understood the concerns, but said MPs should not get distracted: “They’re frustrated because they’re coming up with the arguments, they’re running the campaigns and they don’t get the coverage for them. And I get it, it’s frustrating.”
Headline poll ratings, he said, were only a partial guide to an election in which tactical voting and local campaigns were likely to play a major role in votes likely to be split five or even six ways.
He said: “It’s going to be a ground war much more than people think, and good for us because we’re great at ground wars and at the community politics that turns poll ratings into loads of seats.”
Party strategists are confident they can defend many of the 60-plus so-called blue wall seats won from the Conservatives in 2024 – a zone Davey now refers to as the “orange wall” – and add to that tally. A number of candidates are already in place in target seats after a streamlining of the selection process.
Such efforts, Davey predicted, could be the one thing standing in the way of a Nigel Farage government.
He said: “I have felt for a long time that we have a moral responsibility in our party. It weighs heavily on my shoulders, because when I see men in black shirts and balaclavas, and when I see overt racism at the level we’re seeing it, we have to win. That is a burden for me, knowing we just have to be as smart as we possibly can.”
Some Lib Dems argue that this mission to hoover up anti-Reform sentiment actually makes the party’s slightly subterranean profile a potential benefit, and that Davey should ignore voices calling for him to be bolder or more outspoken.
One MP said: “Unlike Reform and the Greens, we have worked out how to use the electoral system, and if we want to stop bad things happening, we have to tailor our campaigning to that reality. If, say, you embrace one side in a culture war, you divide your community.”
Another MP said Davey should embrace his “centrist dad” image: “He’s a safe pair of hands, which is a valuable thing these days. He could say something a bit crazy to appeal to the core and increase our polling numbers … but it wouldn’t win us a single extra seat.”
Although there are no moves to challenge Davey as leader, some Lib Dems are pushing for the party to set out what it represents.
“We risk being dead in the water if we can’t articulate a proper vision of what we are, and what liberalism is,” one MP warned. “People know what Labour and the Conservatives stand for. If they have an opinion about us, it’s often that we’re slightly nicer Tories.
“Yes, Ed has been our most successful leader ever. But you have to progress or you’re doomed, and at the moment it feels a bit static.”
