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- Problems on two oceans for Australia
- Playbook Interview: We need an AUKUS Pillar 3, for polar security
- Migration goal posts keep moving
SECRET HARBOUR FALLOUT — LABOR, LIBERALS WALLOPED IN THE WEST
One Nation has whacked Labor in Western Australia’s weekend byelection, and it wasn’t even close (57-43). It is the first time One Nation has taken a Labor seat and it led Pauline Hanson to claim “There’s no such thing as a safe seat in Australian politics anymore.”
Results: One Nation increased its primary vote share from 8 percent to 35 percent.
What if? Labor hadn’t stuck to WA’s sweetheart GST deal.
Echoes of Trump: Hanson continues on the Trump messaging line, offering hope for people who want a fighter — and believe their version of Australia has been trashed.
What it takes for One Nation to unseat Labor: “A primary vote approximately in the mid 30s, whilst Labor dropping into the 20s and the Liberal Party finishing third,” writes pollster Kos Samaras.
What it takes for Liberals to stop One Nation: “Voters sense weakness, and they’ll go to the strong horse if they sense weakness,” Andrew Hastie, whose WA federal seat is under threat, says. Sen. Jonno Duniam to News24: “When we start talking about conceding, or coming in second or finding ways to work with other people before we’ve even run the race, then people are not going to back us.”
Play it forward to Victoria: Hanson and Joyce are already campaigning in regional Victoria, part of a three-day tour, ahead of the Nov. 28 state election.
Samaras says Victoria sounds bigger alarm bells for Labor than a popular third-term government in WA. Secret Harbour’s “profile is the point. Outer urban, mortgage belt, young families, tradies, and one of the most Anglo electorates in the state,” he writes. “Melbourne has a dozen seats that look exactly like it or similar,” and there are the regional city seats Labor can write off:
Peninsula: Frankston and Carrum.
Geelong: Lara and Bellarine
Ballarat: Eureka and Wendouree
Bendigo: Bendigo East (former Premier Jacinta Allan’s seat), Bendigo West, and Macedon.
NATIONAL POLLING DEADLOCK: Labor and One Nation are locked in a polling stasis at a federal level, suggesting “both have hit a ceiling in nationwide support,” Phil Coorey writes in The AFR.
PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM CHAOS
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese jets to Palau today for the Pacific Islands Forum (running until Friday), but he faces a depleted lineup: six of the 18 leaders could be missing.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, a key friend of Canberra, was leading the push for a region-wide security agreement sidelining China. But now he’s back home fighting for his political life after his Home Affairs Minister Manasseh Maelanga filed a confidence motion against his leadership.
Which other leaders are missing? Fiji’s Sitiveni Rabuka, Kiribati’s Taneti Maamau, Samoa’s La’aulialemalietoa Leuatea Polataivao Fosi Schmidt and Vanuatu’s Jotham Napat could also be no-shows. Nauru’s David Adeang has not confirmed, Ben Packham reported.
IS CHINA PULLING THE STRINGS IN SOLOMONS LEADERSHIP CRISIS? Maelanga, the politician attempting to take down Wale, was deputy prime minister under Manasseh Sogavare, the pro-China former leader who alarmed Australia by striking a 2022 security pact with Beijing. Chinese state news agency Xinhua was the first to report news of the leadership challenge.
Why it matters: Wale only came to power in May and immediately did three things: visited Albanese to kickstart treaty negotiations, announced a review into Sogavare’s China pact and floated the idea of a regional security pact. None of those have been welcomed by Beijing.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau will travel to Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati from Aug. 31 to Sept. 11.
What we’re looking for from PIF: A detailed plan for action, rather than a light communiqué.
But don’t get complacent thinking the Pacific Ocean is the only ocean where we face a strategic challenge this week.
LIZ BUCHANAN — “AUKUS NEEDS A PILLAR 3: POLAR SECURITY”
Ryan Heath spoke to Buchanan, a senior fellow with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who has done work for Andrew Hastie, over a foreshore walk and at Local Press Cafe in Kingston. She is most recently the author of Polar security: Strategic competition at the ends of the Earth.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What is the root problem Australia faces in asserting its interests in the Antarctic?
The inability for various iterations of leaders in Australia, sadly, to think in a longer-term strategic frame.
Someone needs to be accountable for our external territories. We have to go back to the basics of what are Australian national interests, which starts with territorial integrity.
We claim 42 percent of the Antarctic land mass. That doesn’t feel tenable.
We know right now we cannot defend our claim. The [Antarctic] treaty gives us breathing space. It is quite a cheap insurance policy for 42 percent of a continent that we have no kit to maintain.
Think in terms of strategic potential: Our claim covers about 30 percent of the Earth’s fresh water.
We have a U.S. government with enhanced polar ambitions — which you’ve written about before, on Greenland.
For Donald Trump to say he wouldn’t recognize U.K. sovereignty over the Falkland Islands is interesting — we’ve seen the Greenland Arctic interest, and a lot of U.S. work to secure the Alaskan frontier and the Aleutians. But we haven’t heard anything clear on Antarctic policy. I would not be surprised if there are discussions happening about the utility of remaining a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty.
And leaving the Treaty frees one to participate in a mining arms race?
A resource boom, yes. You’ve got exactly what the tech boys of Silicon Valley are interested in Greenland for, but in Antarctica: vast cool spaces for data.
Much harder to access though
But the U.S. have had a base for 80-something years at the geographical South Pole. It’s a huge facility, so the signal has always been there.
China is now looking at rolling nuclear-powered cargo ships off the production line in the next 12 months. It undercuts the whole idea of Australia having an Antarctic leadership role — there’s no longer a need for “gateway cities” in the way Hobart thinks of itself.
And the Australian Antarctic Division also announced they’re evacuating all personnel from Macquarie Island.
That’s risky: leaving a strategic asset for the taking in the Southern Ocean.
The people are being pulled off for their psychological safety — it would be horrible to watch thousands of seals die next to their research station from bird flu. [But] these human adults can manage that. This is fully Australian territory, with electricity, satellite ground stations and a deepwater port that we have staffed for 80 years. It is an anchor point in the Indian Ocean that is a valuable piece of real estate.
So we’re stopping China getting a deep-sea port in the Pacific, because it would change our defense calculus, and we’re now leaving one unoccupied in the Southern Ocean?
We’re not only leaving it behind, we publicly announced our departure six weeks in advance — in the harshest strategic environment since the Second World War. We are completely adrift when it comes to maintaining any control over what happens on our southern flank.
Can you imagine a world where there’s a pillar three of AUKUS: The U.S., U.K. and Australia working together to defend their interests in the South?
Absolutely, in the polar domain there could be a Pillar 3 of AUKUS — a polar security compact.
AUKUS makes Australia think long-term, AUKUS is a framework Australians understand. It would empower [the government] to actually act on our Antarctic insecurities in a meaningful way without just kicking the can down the road.
Read the full interview with Liz Buchanan.
SURGE, POLITICO’S NEW GLOBAL ENERGY NEWSLETTER: Sign-up free here. The politics of energy and climate differ across our geographies — but the demand for energy does not. Once a narrow energy story, electrification now cuts across energy, tech, finance and more. The AI electricity crunch, data centers, affordability and transmission bottlenecks are scrambling political calculations, and introducing new policymaking tensions in Washington, Brussels, London, Sacramento, Berlin, Paris, Texas, Ottawa, New York, Canberra, and beyond.
MORE ON THAT MACQUARIE ISLAND WITHDRAWAL: The Australian Government’s Antarctic Division will temporarily withdraw staff from Macquarie Island research station 1,500km south-east of Tasmania. Bird flu isn’t present on the island — yet — but there are large elephant seal populations close to station buildings, and it’s likely that thousands will die this season.
DEBATE POINT: Has Australia sacrificed sovereignty for security via AUKUS, at the risk of losing both? That was a line of argument that emerged from the Festival of Dangerous Ideas held in Sydney over the weekend, featuring Malcolm Turnbull and Bob Carr on the topic.
NEPAL — MORE HELP: Foreign Minister Penny Wong has confirmed another $3 million to support the flood-ravaged country. Forty-two Australians are among thousands still missing after last week’s disaster.
RBA’S US DOLLAR SELL-OFF: The Reserve Bank reduced its U.S. dollar holdings target from 55 percent to 45 percent, while the euro target holding increased from 20 percent to 30 percent. Chinese renminbi remains at 5 percent.
UNITED NATIONS — SECURITY COUNCIL CAMPAIGN: Australia and Finland are running uncontested for two-year seats on the Security Council during 2029 and 2030.
Reality check: The care factor here is minimal. It’s better to be on the council than not, and the DFAT team that’s been established to get the job done should achieve that. But compared with being strategic in the Pacific, nailing AUKUS and hosting AI inference training, the U.N. ranks low.
Lindsay Croisdale-Appleby (a former U.K. EU ambassador) and Jonathan Allen are in contention for British High Commissioner to Australia, POLITICO’s Esther Webber reports to Playbook. In the case of Allen it’d be at least partly a consolation prize for not landing the permanent secretary role at the U.K.’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
ICELAND VOTES AGAINST EU MEMBERSHIP: By a margin of 53 percent to 47 percent, Icelanders rejected starting membership negotiations with the EU. The country is already a member of the EU’s single market.
LOGGED OUT: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s landmark policy banning social media for minors is set to be watered down because of possible legal challenges and pushback from Europe’s national capitals. She will now use her Sept. 16 State of the EU speech to announce restrictions for children under 13 that include a host of carveouts.
Inside the plan: The revised proposal would allow children to get online with the permission of their parents. This would minimize the risk of a human rights legal challenge.
Context: A French court earlier this month handed French President Emmanuel Macron a defeat by ruling his proposed ban on social media for children under 15 breached EU laws.
MIGRATION’S EVER-MOVING GOAL POSTS
New week, same problem: Everyone loves the idea of cutting immigration in the macro, absolutely no one can explain what micro cuts they’re going to make to achieve a major reduction.
LABOR TO MOVE AGAIN ON SECONDARY STUDENT VISAS: After the PM personally intervened to rule out cutting Australia’s refugee intake, News24 is now reporting that Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has his eyes on secondary student visas — for partners and family of people here on student visas. That’s 64,000 people already in the country, and another 100,000 applications pending.
Second layer: It might seem an obvious place to cut, but a big reason we have so many secondary student visas is we put so many burdens on professionals to requalify or verify their qualifications in Australia. That is either high standards, or pointless cartel-like behavior.
STILL ON IMMIGRATION: One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce yesterday refused to guarantee to News24.com.au that One Nation’s permanent migration intake would be lower than Labor’s. Hanson has continued to confuse the numbers in her policy.
ONE NATION — WHY FARLEY DOESN’T MAKE SENSE AS A ONE NATION MP: The Saturday Paper’s Jason Koutsoukis reports that One Nation MP David Farley’s relationship with the party — especially Joyce — has “broken down to the point of near-irreconcilable differences.” His agitation for higher migration, in a regional seat highly dependent on it, is no accident.
SPEAK ENGLISH, MIKE! Farley’s not alone in immediately seeming an odd fit with One Nation — Hanson was irked by the party’s new NSW state leader, Mike Newman, responding to a reporter’s question in fluent Japanese.
Different breed: Newman’s 25 years living in Japan, including a stint as NSW senior trade and investment commissioner, isn’t all that distinguishes him. His father, Maurice, was the long-running chair of the ABC — which Hanson wants to drastically cut.
LABOR — ALBANESE AT QUEENSLAND’S LABOR CONFERENCE
ZERO: The words Albo spent on his fossil fuel data center carveout for Queensland’s Coalition government.
39: The words he spent talking about the Coalition.
247: The words he spent talking about One Nation.
His message: “Across the world hard right populists are on the march, peddling politics that is dangerous, divisive and downright dishonest. We simply must defeat them. We owe it to history.”
LABOR — ACT CONFERENCE DEBATES STRIKES AND KANGAROO CULLS: At the weekend’s other Labor conference, ACT Labor members demanded public servants receive pay rises above inflation, Jasper Lindell reports in The Canberra Times, and the only motion defeated was a bid to end the government program that killed 2,981 local kangaroos in 2025.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor will address the Menzies Research Centre on Friday, delivering a speech titled “Crushing the illegal tobacco market.” You can get tickets here.
The Australian Primary Principals Association’s national conference opens at the National Convention Centre and runs until Sept. 3. Conference program.
JANE HUME’S COST OF COCKTAILS CRISIS: Inflation is out of control! One eagle-eyed reader points out that the deputy Liberal leader’s preferred gin cost $85 back in 2022, when she posted her iconic “Mummy needs a cocktail” video. That’s less than half the $200 Labor MP Julian Hill claimed in their recent social media tiff.
Loyal Playbook reader Andrew Leigh completed the Sydney Marathon in 3 hours … and 8 seconds on Sunday. That’s an incredible time for someone in the 50-54 age group, let alone someone holding down a job as government minister.
We’re giving Leigh his 2 hours 59 minutes: the crowds in the marathon absolutely slow a runner down by more than 8 seconds!
Russians got inside my phone, by Michael Isikoff.
Dolly Parton outsmarted the television machine, and weaponized the medium’s superficiality.
Tampa: The Turning Point — ABC documentary history series.
William Dalrymple argues Big Tech companies are the East India company of the 21st century.
ON THE RAMPART: Federal Court Justice Michael Lee, who oversaw Bruce Lehrmann’s defamation case against Network 10, sat down for a rare interview with Rampart founder Joe Aston. Watch here.
DOES CANBERRA HAVE A NEW TIMEZONE? David Smith, MP for Bean, took 11 days to reply to a POLITICO request for comment on a story about Norfolk Island governance putting his hold on the seat at risk, yet he found time to publish detailed views about ACT governance during that period. Now The Canberra Times, 14 days later, has an editorial about Smith’s governance article. Folks, it’s called news: it’s supposed to be new and quick.
EURO WINTER: Get a taste of French cuisine at … the Polish Club! The 2026 European Festival will kick off at 10 a.m. on Saturday, with the advert insisting there’s “no need to catch a flight to Europe.” We humbly disagree.
MOVES AND APPOINTMENTS
DEPARTURE: Legendary SMH cartoonist Cathy Wilcox has left the paper she joined in 1989, getting a fitting send-off on Insiders’ “Talking Pictures” segment yesterday.
HIRED AND RETIRED: Mia Pepper has joined the Adam Bandt-led Australian Conservation Foundation as its nuclear spokesperson. Pepper was previously campaigns director for the Conservation Council of WA, and replaces David McSweeney, who was in the role for three decades.
HIRED: Liam Jones, former media adviser to Sussan Ley, has started as director of communications and media for the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He also ran a personal best in yesterday’s Sydney Marathon (3 hours 40 mins), so let’s hope there’s no stairs for him today.
Danie Bunting has departed as the Governor-General’s Air Force Aide-de-Camp, replaced by Simone Watts (reminder that the G-G is Commander in Chief).
Heather Fritz Horniak is now Chief of Staff, Global Affairs at Andreessen Horowitz.
David Whiting is now partner at Bully Pulpit International.
Jo Briskey, Labor MP; Greg Piper, Speaker of the NSW Legislative Assembly; Don Punch, WA cabinet minister, turns 70 today; so does Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s first female president; Keith Pitt, former Coalition minister and current ambassador to the Holy See; Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince; Felix Eldridge, The Shape Agency managing director.
It takes a village, thanks to editors Dean Southwell and Joe Schatz, producer Emma Cordover, Josh Gerstein and Esther Webber.
