It’s Labor Day, which for campaigns across the country means the sprint to the November midterm elections is on.
As both parties battle for control of Congress, as well as governorships, here are five races to watch for answers to some of the biggest questions at the center of the midterms, including how attitudes about President Trump and the economy will shape the results, how an insurgent progressive pitch will be received in a battleground contest and more.
IOWA SENATE Race
Will Trump and his party face an economic backlash in the heartland?
Iowa has been a reliably red state that Mr. Trump won three times in a row. But this year, Democrats see a chance to turn things around by tapping into economic struggles driven by some of his policies.
The Senate race between Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican, and State Representative Josh Turek, a Democrat, is testing whether voters in a largely rural, conservative state will turn against Republican candidates over Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which have hit agricultural and manufacturing industries hard, and high fertilizer and gas prices, which have climbed steeply amid the war in Iran.
Ms. Hinson has praised tax cuts passed under Mr. Trump and said his tariffs were necessary to bring trade partners to the table, while pushing back at times on Mr. Trump’s trade policies. Mr. Turek has denounced high costs and blamed Republicans for farmers’ economic challenges.
The race could also determine control of the Senate, which nonpartisan analysts see as increasingly up for grabs.
A Democratic win would represent a breakthrough with voters that the party has struggled to connect with over the past few elections, while a Republican victory would suggest that even amid frustration with the economy, some voters are not ready to break with Mr. Trump and his party.
Texas’ 28th congressional district
Will the G.O.P.’s gambit on gerrymandering and Latino voters work or backfire?
A nationwide gerrymandering battle that Mr. Trump and his party started has largely played out in their favor. In Texas, Republicans redrew the Congressional map to gain as many as five House seats. In doing so, they made a bet that Republicans could keep some of the inroads that Mr. Trump made with Latino voters, including in South Texas, in 2024.
One test of the Republican strategy is in the state’s 28th Congressional District, where Representative Henry Cuellar, a moderate Democrat whom Mr. Trump pardoned as he awaited a bribery trial, is seeking re-election against Tano Tijerina, a county judge. The district favored Mr. Trump by about 10 percentage points under its new boundaries and increased the share of Hispanic voters from about 75 percent to about 91 percent.
Since 2024, there have been some indications that Mr. Trump’s support in South Texas is waning amid voter concerns about the economy and immigration crackdowns. And elections held in other states have shown encouraging signs for Democrats in their efforts to improve their standing with Latino voters.
The outcome in the district, along with others in Texas, including the 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, will help determine how effective the Republican Party’s unusual middecade redistricting strategy ends up being and offer fresh indicators of each party’s standing with Latino voters.
Georgia Governor’s race
How is the Democratic brand doing in the South?
Democrats are hoping to make gains in the South and win statewide contests in North Carolina and Georgia, where their Senate candidates are currently in strong positions. The open governor’s race in Georgia, one of the most competitive on the map, is another big contest on the minds of leaders in both parties.
Georgia has flipped back and forth during the last three presidential elections, most recently voting for Mr. Trump in 2024, and has hosted competitive Senate races in recent years. But it has not had a Democratic governor since Roy Barnes left office in 2003.
Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee, served in President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration and was his first endorsement of the cycle. If she wins, she would be the first Black woman in U.S. history to be elected governor.
Her Republican opponent is the billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson, who has attacked her record as Atlanta mayor, trying to make her a symbol of unpopular Democratic policies on criminal justice. Ms. Bottoms has sought to tie Mr. Jackson to Mr. Trump. The president’s unpopularity has given Democrats an opening in Southern swing states, but the party has its own brand problems. How Ms. Bottoms does in November will provide a snapshot of its overall standing.
MICHIGAN’s Seventh Congressional District
How will a left-wing candidate do in swing territory?
Progressive insurgents notched some major victories this primary season, largely in safely Democratic territory. In battleground areas, some moderate Democrats (as well as Republicans) have argued that these candidates put their party in a weaker position in the general election, an assertion that will be tested in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District.
There, Representative Tom Barrett, a vulnerable Republican who has promoted his efforts to limit Mr. Trump’s war powers in Iran, faces a challenge from William Lawrence, a Democrat who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a youth-led environmental group.
Mr. Barrett has attacked Mr. Lawrence for his past affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America (Mr. Lawrence said he recently allowed his membership to lapse). Mr. Lawrence has also distanced himself from comments and social media posts he previously made, including some recently unearthed by CNN in which he attacked Democrats and embraced left-wing positions.
Mr. Lawrence has campaigned on opposing data centers and enacting universal health care. Progressives have argued that such issues can energize working-class voters not just in Democratic primaries but in general elections, as well. Republicans across the country, meanwhile, are eager to portray Democrats as too far to the left. The Michigan race is expected to factor into the battle for control of the House this fall. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates it as a tossup.
VIRGINIA’S Second congressional district
