The European Union spent an estimated €8.7 billion on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Arctic in the first ten months of 2026, exceeding its estimated bill for the whole of 2025 by 21%, according to an analysis by environmental campaign group Urgewald.
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With Brussels preparing to ban Russian LNG imports from January 1, 2027, European buyers continue to provide Moscow with a lucrative market, despite repeated political commitments to end the bloc’s dependence on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine.
Urgewald analysed data from energy intelligence firm Kpler showing that EU ports received 12.89 million tonnes of LNG from Russia’s Yamal project between January and October, up 6.3% year-on-year and accounting for 81% of the project’s recorded deliveries worldwide.
Europe remains the main customer of one of Russia’s flagship Arctic gas projects, the Yamal pipeline, despite EU leaders repeatedly touting the end of reliance on Russian fossil fuels. The EU received a Yamal cargo roughly every 1.7 days during the period.
With just 50 days until the ban on Russian LNG imports under existing long-term contracts takes effect, EU purchases continue to rise.
The increase in spending reflects not only higher volumes but also more expensive gas.
October deliveries fell by 11% compared with September, yet their estimated value rose 2.6% to €839 million as the European gas price benchmark rose to €86.79/MWh, more than double the price before the United States-Israel war on Iran.
France leads the way
France (5.37 million tonnes) was the main destination for October shipments, receiving 70% of EU deliveries. Spain (2.91 million tonnes), the Netherlands (1.32 million tonnes) and Portugal (0.22 million tonnes) were also among the Russian Arctic LNG recipients in October.
Belgium (3.06 million tonnes) remained the largest individual destination, when calculated over the first ten months of 2026, with 42 cargoes and around 3.1 million tonnes unloaded at Zeebrugge.
No Yamal cargoes were recorded at the Belgian terminal in August, September or October, although its importance to the overall trade remains significant, Urgewald noted.
Urgewald sanctions campaigner Alexander Kirk noted the ongoing commercial LNG partnership between the EU and the US, Norway and Algeria.
“We can end Russian LNG imports on 1 January. But switching suppliers still leaves European households exposed to gas price spikes and political pressure from abroad,” Kirk told Euronews, encouraging the uptake of clean tech to cut gas demand.
“Every home we insulate or switch to a heat pump cuts gas demand. Every time wind or solar replaces gas in the power grid, Europe cuts emissions and gives gas exporters less leverage.”
The impending ban could deal a major logistical and commercial blow to Moscow, as Yamal’s Arctic location makes access to European ports particularly valuable.
The project relies on specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers to navigate frozen waters, while European destinations allow ships to unload relatively close to the production site and return quickly.
Without access to EU ports, Russia would face longer voyages, higher transport costs and fewer opportunities to redirect cargoes, particularly during the winter when navigation along the Northern Sea Route becomes more difficult.
Urgewald argues that losing the European market would undermine the economics of Russia’s Arctic LNG exports, rather than simply redirecting existing supplies elsewhere.
However, the impact will depend on Moscow’s ability to develop alternative shipping routes and markets.
China, South Korea and Taiwan were the biggest receivers in the Asian market, accounting for 18.6% of Yamal deliveries between January and October.
Questions remain over whether EU countries will enforce the ban without exemptions or last-minute concessions, particularly as winter approaches and concerns over energy security persist.
Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, urged EU countries to “hold the line”.
“With just 50 days to go until the January ban, Europe must hold the line. No retreat, no new exemptions and no lifelines for this trade. After almost five years of war, governments must finally pull the plug on the Russian LNG business,” Rötters said.
