Energy and Water Issues Propel Democrats to Victory in Arizona

PHOENIX—Two years after President Donald Trump won Arizona with 52 percent of the vote, Democrats are poised to win a trifecta in the state House, Senate and governor’s office, and could potentially win every statewide elected position. The battleground state’s blue wave could fundamentally alter how it responds to increasingly deadly heat and persistent drought brought on by climate change. 

Central to the Democrats’ wins, party members and candidates said, was their focus on addressing the state’s growing energy demand and declining water resources, which are increasingly top issues for Arizonans. 

Attorney General Kris Mayes, who has made protecting the state’s water resources and fighting rising energy costs her top two priorities, won her bid for reelection. Democrats Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill took two seats on the state’s currently all-Republican commission that regulates utilities. And, for the first time since 1966, Democrats are almost guaranteed to have a trifecta with incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs winning her reelection bid against Republican-candidate Rep. Andy Biggs. Even the party’s candidate for state mine inspector, Brian Matlock, leads in the polls, with his potential win marking the first time that seat has gone to a Democrat since 1976.

Taken together, the Democrats’ wins present an opportunity for major changes to how the state approaches climate change and energy policy, potentially paving the way for new renewable energy development and groundwater regulations. The latter has proven to be one of the state’s stickiest policy debates over the last decade, and an issue where Hobbs has attempted to make strides but been stopped from enacting reform by the Republican-controlled legislature.

“What we’ve seen is data centers have brought [energy and water] issues to the forefront,” Priya Sundareshan, Democratic leader in the state Senate, told Inside Climate News at the Arizona Democrats watch party Tuesday night. “The bipartisan response to data centers that we know voters have is around their energy use and their water use, and those are fundamentally questions that we have failed to address at the state level, and we continue to fail to address because of Republican control of the legislature.”

Arizona knows extreme weather well, she said, from record-hot summers to flooding that left communities evacuated over the last week to dwindling water supplies. 

“All of that is directly tied to the changing climate, and that’s something where we can tie that picture together and be able to show voters that we can see the big picture,” Sundareshan said. “We can work toward a future that makes sure that we can all live here.”

In an interview with Inside Climate News, Mayes, the attorney general, said focusing her office and campaign on energy and water issues “were pivotal” to her victory. During her first four years, Mayes sued Fondomonte Arizona, a subsidiary of a Saudi Arabian company, which was pumping an unlimited amount of water from a groundwater basin on state trust land to irrigate alfalfa that was eventually fed to cattle in Saudi Arabia. She also challenged the Arizona Corporation Commission—of which she was once an elected member—over its decisions to roll back renewable energy and energy efficiency programs. And she has called for a statewide moratorium on new data center development until a plan for them can be developed.

“I did 70 town halls all over Arizona, many of them about water and data centers,” she said. “I think that resonated with Arizonans. People are worried about our water supplies, and they didn’t think that they had politicians working hard enough on those issues, and they saw in me somebody that was willing to stick my neck out against powerful entities and I will continue to do that.”

Many of the state’s races are far from a done deal, with only a fraction of the votes counted so far. But Democrats hold overwhelming leads for many seats that put them out of reach for Republicans. The final count for the state Senate and House remain undecided, though it is clear Democrats will have a majority in both. 

Democrats flipped Scottsdale’s Congressional District 1 in one of the country’s most contested races, with Dr. Amish Shah winning the seat he failed to take in 2024. They also beat incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in southern Arizona’s Congressional District 6, with Democrat JoAnna Mendoza flipping the seat.

But it’s too early to call some of the state’s other races for the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats are maintaining close races in three other Republican-held districts. Only one Arizona Republican, Paul Gosar, has won his reelection for his House seat so far. 

Polling has consistently shown energy and water issues were top of mind for voters. The Center for the Future of Arizona found 69 percent of voters don’t have confidence that the state will have enough water in the long-term, and that water was the top issue for its voters. Recent polling from The Nature Conservancy in Arizona and the Arizona PIRG Education Fund found about 80 percent of Arizonans said their electricity bills rose in the last two years. More than 60 percent said their summer power bills are difficult to afford. 

“The people of Arizona deserve leaders who are looking out for us and ensuring that we can afford to fill our gas tank and keep our lights on, and that’s why they re-elected Governor Hobbs,” said Climate Power’s Arizona State Director Diali Avila in a statement. “Andy Biggs and his fellow Republicans rubber-stamped Trump’s agenda at every turn, and now they’re paying the price. Arizonans need relief from skyrocketing costs, and Governor Hobbs will work to bring down costs for Arizonans—not enrich oil and gas billionaires.”