“Okay, the Democrats will be much more supportive of Ukraine and NATO, but they can’t direct Trump to do things,” he added. “They can approve money, but Trump just turns around and says, ‘Well, I don’t have to spend it.’”
Volker predicts Trump will step up his use of pocket rescission, a contested legal theory for clawing back congressionally appropriated funds. “That has been the pattern on so many things, tariffs most notably,” said Volker. “But on lots of things, he’d prefer to run out the clock and fight in the courts.”
The former ambassador said he’s unsure which way Trump will go when it comes to Iran — relaunch military operations or leave the crisis for Europe and Asia to solve. On NATO and reducing U.S. deployments in Europe, Volker suspects Trump will be careful out of fear of domestic backlash.
Then again, Trump is “extraordinarily hard to predict,” said Bronwen Maddox, director and CEO of Britain’s Chatham House think tank. “Maybe he’ll retreat after a bit of initial lashing out at the election result and focus on his planned monuments, including the White House ballroom,” she speculated hopefully but without too much conviction.
Maddox sees no cause for celebration, whatever the election result or Trump’s response. European leaders should instead reflect on how much the U.S. has changed. “American voters elected Trump twice, and even if they now turn on him, those elections show their focus is now inward,” she said.
Europeans were slow to grasp the significance of MAGA and how long the movement might endure, Maddox said. She believes too little recognition remains of how much the American political landscape has changed — including the Democratic Party.
“I don’t think America sees itself in Europe in the way it used to,” she said. “For me, that message has been clear for some time.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misstated Wolfgang Ischinger’s role at the Munich Security Conference. He is its outgoing chair.
