Abdul El‑Sayed and Haley Stevens are locked in a Senate primary dominated about outside spending. (Photos by Sarah Rice Kayla Bartkowski via Getty Images
Outside spending has overtaken the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, with super PACs flooding the race with tens of millions of dollars and overwhelming the candidates’ own fundraising while fundamentally reshaping a contest that could help decide control of the chamber.
Rep. Haley Stevens is backed by massive super PAC spending, and has also attacked the main super PAC supporting her opponent, Abdul El‑Sayed, because one of its top donors is his father‑in‑law. Experts say the dynamic illustrates how national political networks, not local fundraising, are driving the fight for Michigan’s open Senate seat.
“The battle for the future of the Democratic Party has come to Michigan,” David Dulio, an author and political science professor at Oakland University, told OpenSecrets.
Outside groups have poured more than $52 million into the Michigan Senate race through mid‑July, according to an OpenSecrets analysis of FEC reports. The contest ranks second only to the one in Texas ($63.7 million) in the volume of outside spending. Most was driven by four super PACs, and much of it has backed Stevens. Meanwhile, the three remaining candidates themselves – including Rep. Mike Rogers, who is unopposed in the Republican primary – have raised nearly $34 million combined, according to FEC quarterly reports through June 30.
The gap underscores how much of the financial muscle in this primary is coming from super PACs – technically, independent expenditure committees – compared to the campaigns.
“There’s PACs everywhere. There’s PACs galore,” Wayne State University political science professor Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson said.
That sheer scale of outside spending has shifted the center of gravity in the race. “We’re beyond that point” where the outside spending controls the contest, Sarbaugh-Thompson told OpenSecrets.
“These external people are having their own little personal fiefdom battles and their disagreements on who’s going to be the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. They’re doing it in our primary,” she added.
The race between Stevens – a four-term House member viewed as the establishment candidate – and El-Sayed – an epidemiologist and former Wayne County health director favored by progressives – has split Democrats along ideological lines. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), whose retirement opened the seat, have endorsed Stevens. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) support El-Sayed. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign July 7 but remains on the Aug. 4 ballot.
The winner will face Rogers in a November contest Democrats view as essential to their hopes of regaining control of the chamber. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a tossup.
The establishment’s spending surge reflects a deeper strategic concern, Dulio said.
“The pouring of outside money into Michigan on the Stevens side is because of the alarm bells that are going off in the Democratic establishment that, ‘We cannot lose this primary,’” Dulio said. “I think they imagine that Abdul El-Sayed will lose to Mike Rogers, or at least have a much more difficult time defeating Mike Rogers than Haley Stevens would.”
OpenSecrets reached out to both Democratic campaigns but did not immediately receive responses from either.
Dark money funds one key group backing Stevens
In what has become the race’s dominant storyline, Stevens has drawn an extraordinary wave of outside support driven by two super PACs that have poured in more than $30 million through mid-July.
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The biggest player is the United Democracy Project – the super PAC aligned with the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee that works to elect pro-Israel candidates. As of July 20, it spent nearly $20 million on this race, one of at least nine contests it is targeting this cycle. In a five-day blitz in mid-July, the group spent nearly $4.7 million, with more than 85% of it aimed at opposing El-Sayed, who is bidding to become the first Muslim U.S. senator. Michigan is home to one of the nation’s largest Arab-American populations.
“I think when we think about outside money in this race, there’s only one element that matters, and it’s AIPAC,” Dulio said, calling it “shorthand.”
“Saying that Haley Stevens is backed by – or, in other words, bought and paid for – by AIPAC … conveys a lot of information,” he continued.
Far less is publicly known about another major force in the race: A Stronger Michigan, a super PAC created on June 1 that has rapidly become a central engine of pro-Stevens outside spending. The group spent nearly $14 million through July 20 to boost Stevens and attack El-Sayed, and its funding stream is almost entirely tied to the dark-money nonprofit Center Forward.
Center Forward reported $7.3 million in total revenue and $6.9 million in contributions in 2024, according to its most recent IRS filing – money that cannot be traced to specific donors because, as a 501(c)(4) “social welfare” organization, it does not disclose who funds it. Its contributions accounted for nearly 99% of A Stronger Michigan’s roughly $11.1 million in receipts received June 2-30.
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Center Forward’s IRS filings list board member Jefferies Murray, founder of the lobbying firm 535 Group, as its principal officer and treasurer. Murray’s McLean, Va., home – a multimillion-dollar property he lists on FEC documents – serves as the headquarters for both Center Forward and A Stronger Michigan. Murray is also treasurer of the Center Forward Committee super PAC, which spent nearly $1 million in May supporting Stevens. Contributions from Center Forward made up $2.1 million of the $2.3 million Center Forward Committee raised this cycle.
The remaining $150,000 backing A Stronger Michigan came from Michigan Forward 2026 – a Dallas-based super PAC funded by KIND Snacks founder Daniel Lubetzky, the American Chemistry Council and another 501(c)(4), the American Foundation for Good Government.
And A Stronger Michigan will not disclose the sources of any money it raises between July 1 and the Aug. 4 primary until weeks after voters cast their ballots. Because the super PAC files monthly reports, its next disclosure is not due until Aug. 20 – more than two weeks after the primary.
“We don’t get the information that we need to see who’s pulling the strings and what’s going on until way late,” Sarbaugh‑Thompson said.
A Stronger Michigan directed most of its money to two Democratic-aligned firms, sending nearly $9.8 million to Washington-based Waterfront Strategies for television and radio ads and another $3.6 million to Chicago-based AL Media for digital advertising.
OpenSecrets reached out to A Stronger Michigan’s treasurer, Melanie Hudson; Center Forward; and Murray but did not immediately receive responses.
Another super PAC, Unite to Win, spent nearly $2.8 million on July 16 to support Stevens, FEC records show. That group received $1.4 million on June 12 from Democracy Matters, a 501(c)(4) founded by former NBA player Adonal Foyle that promotes progressive policies on college campuses. Its most recent IRS filing showed $1.8 million in negative net assets in 2024 after it awarded $46.8 million in grants while raising $21 million.
El-Sayed’s family ties to super PAC draw criticism
The main super PAC backing El-Sayed – Fighting for Michigan PAC – has played a smaller but still significant role in the race’s outside-spending landscape. Through June 30, the committee raised nearly $2.5 million and held $1.1 million in cash on hand. As of July 17, it reported spending more than $1.8 million on the race.
Much like A Stronger Michigan, its operations are rooted far closer to the Washington Beltway than the Motor City, and its headquarters is also linked to its treasurer. Peter Sarasohn, who serves as both treasurer and custodian of records, runs the PAC out of a Silver Spring, Md., townhome that he previously listed on FEC documents as his home address. Sarasohn, a veteran Democratic operative who was budget director for Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, now runs a consulting firm and also serves as treasurer of Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson’s exploratory committee. He did not immediately respond to OpenSecrets’ request for comment.
Fighting for Michigan has drawn criticism from Stevens over its funding sources, with the congresswoman claiming during a July 7 debate that El-Sayed “has a super PAC that is run by his father-in-law.” One of the committee’s top donors is indeed Michigan nephrologist Jukaku Tayed, El-Sayed’s father-in-law, who has contributed $300,000 across three $100,000 installments between Feb. 3 and June 22. But while super PACs – which may raise and spend unlimited sums – are prohibited from coordinating that spending with federal candidates, there is no credible evidence that the super PAC is “run by” Tayed, as Stevens claimed.
Another super PAC, American Priorities, spent just over $350,000 as of July 16 to support El-Sayed, FEC records show. That committee formed earlier this year to counter AIPAC spending in Democratic primaries. Funded in part by $1 million contributions from Omer Hasan and Mohammad Waqas – two top donors to a super PAC supporting New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani – it spent $1.6 million to back Adam Hamawy’s congressional bid in New Jersey and $1.1 million on Nida Allam’s in North Carolina.
Outside spending dwarfs candidates’ fundraising
The outside spending overshadows the money both candidates have raised on their own.
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El-Sayed overtook Stevens in total fundraising during a big second quarter fueled by small-dollar donations. He outraised Stevens more than 2-to-1 from April 1 through June 30, with his $4.6 million quarterly haul bringing his total to $12.2 million. Stevens’ total is just under $11 million.
Unitemized individual donations of less than $200 made up more than $1.3 million of El-Sayed’s fundraising total for the quarter.
The two candidates had a combined $6.1 million in cash on hand through June 30, while Rogers – the Republican awaiting the winner – held $5.7 million. By comparison, that total is a fraction of the $80.3 million war chest at the United Democracy Project’s disposal.
“The story right now … is that Stevens is dominating with outside funding,” Dulio said. “El-Sayed has momentum, and Stevens has money.”
