Will the first victim of the political conference season be the Liberal Democrats’ Sir Ed Davey? It might seem quixotic, given that he is the most successful liberal parliamentary leader in a century. Yet a meeting of Lib Dem MPs on Tuesday night could see them collect the 18 signatures needed for a confidence vote. It’s hard to see what a putsch would achieve, apart from giving the party’s opponents a stick to beat it with. That may be the point: weakening Sir Ed in an internal war of attrition so that he walks away would be easier than removing him via a no-confidence vote passed by a majority of all Lib Dem MPs.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,” said Napoleon Bonaparte. With populists slipping in the polls, Lib Dem plotters should remember this, especially as Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are looking to advance at the Lib Dems’ expense. The Tory economic pitch is to end the 60% marginal tax rate on earnings between £100,000 and £125,000, and let couples pass on the family home plus another £1m tax-free. It’s a clear bid to win back affluent southern voters in England’s “yellow wall”.
In the face of such an offensive, Sir Ed’s £17bn tax giveaway looks like a pre-emptive strike aimed at disillusioned Tory voters. His strategy has its detractors. Discontent has moved over the past year from private complaints to public criticism from council leaders, and frontbench resignations last week. At the heart of the row is how the Lib Dems turn their MPs into a more potent force. Sir Ed wants to expand from the party’s geographic base, mobilise tactical voters and firmly establish the Lib Dems in seats they can win as the best bet to stop a rightwing government headed by Reform UK.
His opponents argue that parliamentary heft counts for little if voters barely notice it. Critics point to polling saying that Lib Dems don’t “own” any one issue. It’s true that the Lib Dem leader has trained his fire on the Tories and Reform, not Labour. But that’s no bad thing. Sir Ed’s team pointedly argue that a more populist strategy would be as exhilarating as a plane in a nosedive. Just ask the Greens: no one knows if their pilot will be able to pull out before hitting the ground.
An upmarket Gail’s bakery on the high street is the best predictor of a Lib Dem vote. It marks the party’s affluent electorate: Lib Dems hold five of Britain’s 10 most prosperous seats, but just seven in the poorest half. For the Lib Dems, taking chunks out of Labour in their urban strongholds at the next election simply helps Reform by splitting the opposition. Sir Ed’s pro-Europeanism is a selling point. Although Mrs Badenoch denies it, the Tories and Reform could form a “marriage of convenience” coalition to run the country after the next election. Sir Ed’s strategy may be low-key, but it is ruthlessly efficient: the party’s 3.7m votes won 11 seats in 2019, whereas 3.5m votes won 72 seats in 2024. The Lib Dems must help to keep the right out of Downing Street. Sir Ed’s critics risk handing the Tories and Reform the keys to No 10 by chasing headlines rather than seats.
