By holding Holborn and St Pancras, Andy Burnham’s Labour has shown it can attract liberal and left-leaning voters. The seat has substantial numbers of young adults, students, professionals and Muslims – offering fertile ground for the Greens’ ecopopulism. However, Labour prevailed. Having won leave-voting Makerfield in June, Mr Burnham can now claim an appeal that bridges Labour’s divided electorate. It’s worth noting that turnout in London was low and Labour’s vote share fell 3.7 points. But that compares with an average 19.3-point fall in four byelections under Mr Burnham’s predecessor. The new leader clearly has bought Labour breathing space and checked the Green advance.
The Greens more than tripled their vote share in the constituency to 33%. But they were beaten. Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali took 45% in Sir Keir Starmer’s former seat, leaving Zack Polanski’s ambition of entering parliament unfulfilled. For a party that began the year promising to turn voters’ hunger for change into a serious challenge to Labour, this was a sobering moment. The passing of a motion declaring “Zionism is racism” at its conference probably cost the party support – though the result in central London alone cannot definitively say that. There is a separate question of leadership. Mr Polanski now says he would have voted against the motion. Why, then, did he not make his opposition clear when it mattered last weekend?
He intends to remain leader – and the expanded, radical membership has given Mr Polanski a base in the party that likely insulates him from an instant coup. But with calls for his resignation growing, he has to try to stay in the job while restoring confidence in the Greens’ electoral chances. Clouds had emerged on the horizon long before the party’s conference. Its spring polling surge has faded. In March, YouGov put the party second nationally to Reform, on 21%. Mr Burnham has since stolen much of the Greens’ rhetorical thunder by consciously evoking a more leftwing agenda. The party is now in fourth place, polling 10% nationally.
As Mr Polanski’s profile has grown, it seems the public have become less convinced by his political talents. Since the beginning of the year his net favourability rating has fallen from -6 to -29. The Greens are not to be discounted. Mr Burnham has yet to turn hope into lasting support. That will depend on what his government delivers, especially as prices rise, rather than whom it defeats.
In an interview with the BBC, Jonathan Bartley, the Greens’ former party co-leader, warned that the influx of members has changed the party and that some newcomers are unaware of its traditions of consensus and opposition to political “purity tests”. Significantly, Mr Polanski’s deputy, Rachel Millward, said that the party structures needed to become “fully democratic and strategic”. This may not be enough for the Green MP Siân Berry, who said she wanted to “fix the serious flaws” in the controversial Zionism motion.
Leadership is missing, and responsibility for that falls squarely on Mr Polanski. He has shown that he can communicate persuasively. Now, if he remains in post, he must show that he can acknowledge what went wrong and build support for changing the controversial Zionism policy. Mr Polanski claims credit for Labour’s leftward turn. But the Green leader now needs to put his own party’s house in order.
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