Labour’s flagship changes to special education in England are at risk of unravelling because parents are rushing to secure support for their children before the system changes, new analysis has found.
The Institute for Government (IfG) thinktank says the government’s plans to largely replace education, health and care plans (EHCPs) in England with more widespread support in mainstream schools may be too optimistic and take longer to complete than its 2030 timeline.
The thinktank’s report calls on the government to review the timetable for the changes. And it suggests that if ministers do not act they “risk basing both their reforms and spending plans on assumptions that the system cannot deliver”.
The news will be seen as a sign that the government’s ambitious plans to overhaul the special education system did not reckon with the scale of worry among parents, many of whom appear to have acted to ensure support and avoid uncertainty in the future.
The Guardian recently reported that councils and schools have reported a surge in applications for EHCPs, with one school describing the level as “unreal” compared with previous years. Several councils are now projecting that at the current rates of increase, nearly one in 10 pupils will have an EHCP by 2029.
Amber Dellar, the author of the IfG report out this week, said the long rollout of the changes created a “moral hazard” that encouraged parents to apply for EHCPs now rather than wait for the new system.
“There’s a ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic, as schools and parents have an incentive to secure EHCPs before they are phased out, because there’s a lot of uncertainty about what these new specialist packages of support will contain and who will be eligible for them,” she said.
Dellar said the government’s plans added new resources in order to reduce the need for families to seek EHCPs, the individualised packages of support agreed between parents and local authorities that can be enforced by specialist tribunals.
But Dellar said budgets for the additional resources for special educational needs and disabilities (Send) would be eroded if demands for EHCPs shot above the government’s own forecasts, with councils saying they have to keep issuing EHCPs until the existing legislation is repealed.
She said: “The government has a lot riding on the reforms taking effect before they fully kick in – its spending plans for the parliament have some assumptions about savings baked in that are based in particular on them being able to slow the growth or the trajectory of numbers of pupils with EHCPs.
“It has a lot politically riding on it as well, and of course in terms of the wellbeing of the children and families involved.”
A Department for Education (DfE) spokesperson said: “The figures in this report are speculative and there is no evidence that proposed reforms are driving additional EHCP demand.
“We inherited a Send system with record numbers of EHCPs and families waiting months for support. We are already investing to change that, backing schools to improve inclusion, widening access to specialists and rolling out training for every teacher to better support children before needs escalate.
“It is vital that we take the time needed to get this right, but we are completely committed to the implementation timelines set out in the schools white paper and will announce next steps soon.”
The changes announced in February under Keir Starmer’s administration promised to overhaul a system that parents have denounced for forcing them to seek EHCPs to secure specialist support or a place in a special school.
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Many parents said the EHCP application process – introduced by the Conservatives in 2014 – required lengthy waits for NHS assessments for conditions such as ADHD or autism, or great expense for those who could afford private assessments. Families then face bureaucratic delays from schools and local authorities, or legal appeals to a specialist Send tribunal to override councils’ objections.
Mark Franks, the director of welfare at the Nuffield Foundation, which funded the report, said: “While there is broad agreement that the current system is under strain, uncertainty and concern remain about whether future levels of investment and the nature of reform will be sufficient to provide high-quality support for all children and young people.”
The IfG said the additional costs of Send provision could erode the extra funding being offered for state schools in England, saying it could absorb “around two-thirds of the generous schools funding uplift over this parliament”.
The package of changes would see mainstream schools given greater support for pupils with special needs, including the creation of specialist bases, allowing pupils to attend local schools and reduce pressure on special schools.
The DfE also wants individual support plans to replace many EHCPs, which would be retained for children with the most profound needs.
The IfG said: “It is not clear exactly how the reforms will slow the growth in EHCPs before the new system is fully in place.”
Dellar said: “The government is making investments now, in early intervention and in specialist bases. But the whole way the government is approaching these Send reforms is deliberately to take a slow, phased approach – largely because it knows that those investments are going to take a while to have an effect.
“Its investments in early assessment are going to take a little time to bear fruit. It has not yet properly set out exactly what preventative support it wants schools to put in place. So until schools have that, it’s unclear that they will actually be able to start doing the work the government wants them to do.
“On top of that, the system is tightly bound by existing legislation. Local authorities [LAs] in particular have quite strict guidelines, and tribunals suggest that there are often disputes over eligibility for EHCPs but LAs are likely to be pulled towards the law as it stands until the law changes.”
