Anthropic’s planned IPO could force a fast-growing crypto derivatives market to reconcile its synthetic valuation with Wall Street’s actual price.
Pre-IPO perpetual contracts linked to the artificial-intelligence company generated $643 million in trading across 12 crypto venues through Sept. 21, already exceeding the $590 million recorded in all of August, according to Binance Research.
About $80 million of Anthropic-linked open interest was outstanding at the September snapshot. On Binance alone, open interest rose 88% over 30 days to $31.2 million from $16.6 million.
The growth has taken place without publicly traded Anthropic shares anchoring the market.
Instead, traders are buying and selling cash-settled contracts whose prices reflect a crypto market estimate of Anthropic’s value. That arrangement becomes more consequential once a stock listing introduces an external price that could differ sharply from the valuation implied by the derivatives.
Anthropic announced a confidential draft IPO filing in June, though reports this week suggested the debut may slip beyond the November US midterm elections.
That leaves traders building positions in a market whose eventual reference point has yet to exist.
A synthetic valuation meets a real stock price
Binance currently derives the mark price for its Anthropic perpetual from recent trading in the contract itself.
The exchange averages recent prices and limits how far the mark can move from one second to the next, allowing positions to be valued before any public share price exists.
That changes after an IPO.
Binance says it can convert a pre-IPO perpetual into a standard equity-linked contract once it has a stable third-party stock-price index and issues a transition notice. The process does not necessarily begin as soon as shares start trading.
During the transition, the mark price gradually shifts toward the stock-linked calculation.
That creates a potential repricing event for traders carrying positions through the listing.
If Anthropic’s crypto-implied valuation differs materially from the price established in public markets, the convergence could alter unrealized gains and losses, collateral values and liquidation thresholds.
The scale of the market makes that risk more than theoretical.
Binance Research measured combined open interest in Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals above $160 million as of Sept. 15, up from roughly $1 million in April.
The growth suggests crypto venues are increasingly becoming a market for expressing views on private AI companies before conventional investors can buy their shares.
Anthropic-linked contracts have already shown some sensitivity to IPO expectations.
During a weekend when reports indicated a potential shift in the company’s listing timetable, Binance’s ANTHROPICUSDT perpetual fell 0.89% to $2,084 from $2,103.
Binance said the muted move was consistent with some delay already being priced in, though the reaction alone cannot establish what traders expected.
SpaceX shows listing can expand the trade
SpaceX offers the clearest precedent for what can happen when a pre-IPO crypto contract gains a public equity benchmark.
When the company listed in June, Binance kept existing positions and open orders in place while transitioning its mark price toward a stock index. The exchange said the adjustment could take as long as three hours depending on volatility and the stability of the reference price.
Trading activity expanded sharply afterward.
FalconX said SpaceX perpetual open interest exceeded $300 million before the IPO and peaked 11 days after the listing. Average daily perpetual volume across venues reached $2.2 billion during the following 30 days.
Binance separately said average daily SpaceX perpetual volume on its platform climbed to about $1.6 billion after conversion from roughly $89 million before the IPO.
The figures cover different groups of venues, but both point to the same outcome: the arrival of publicly traded shares did not remove demand for the crypto derivative.
What remains unclear is whether the original pre-IPO traders stayed.
Higher open interest after a listing can also reflect new participants entering once price discovery improves and the contract becomes easier to hedge against the stock.
That distinction will matter for Anthropic because its existing market has formed without a public benchmark.
OpenAI provides the contrasting case. Sam Altman has said the company will not go public in 2026, leaving its pre-IPO contracts without a listed share price to force the same reconciliation this year.
Anthropic could therefore become the more immediate test of how far crypto markets can front-run private-company valuation before Wall Street sets its own price.
The next signals will come from Anthropic’s IPO timetable and any Binance transition notice.
After that, traders will watch the gap between the perpetual and the listed shares, how quickly the two converge, and whether the open interest built before the IPO survives once the synthetic valuation has to answer to a public market.
