Andy Burnham has said Brexit has “done more harm than good” and pledged to launch a major review of the UK’s relationship with the EU, opening the door to a potential referendum over rejoining the union.
He said he would “lay out options” around the time of the next EU-UK summit, due to be held at the end of November or soon after.
While he didn’t specify options, he did not explicitly rule out rejoining. Keir Starmer’s red lines of not rejoining the single market or customs union could now also be up for discussion within Labour’s ranks in the coming weeks.
“I would be stunned if Starmer’s red lines are in the next manifesto,” said Joël Reland, senior research fellow at UK in a Changing Europe, a key Brexit thinkthank.
What exactly did Burnham say on the EU?
“Brexit hasn’t given us control,” he said, arguing the UK had not just lost control of immigration – contrary to what Brexiters had promised – but also over the economy.
“I will take the opportunity around the summit to lay out to you, to lay out to the country, what I believe the different options are for Britain’s long term relationship with our European partners,” he said.
“There are different options and I will see if we can find consensus around one, which will give us clarity about our position and the future of the continent that we live in.”
Why is this significant?
Going beyond Starmer’s reset ambitions is a risky move and will test Burnham’s ability to sell any closer relationship with EU to a country still bruised by Brexit.
The stakes are high. In the 10 years since the Brexit referendum, the UK has drifted from its nearest trading bloc.
The UK has seen exports to the EU drop, travel restrictions for British passport holders and even potential new red tape for employers who send staff to the continent on short-term contracts.
A fight is under way to prevent the UK from being further locked out from trade by being included in coming Made in Europe legislation designed to protect European supply chains from cheap Chinese imports. So far it has the backing of the Netherlands, Italy and Germany but not France.
So what are the options?
Long shot – rejoin the EU
Rejoining the EU would require a referendum in the UK and potentially years of de-Brexit negotiations. Plus, Brussels would need some cast iron guarantees that the UK wouldn’t just walk out again.
It would mean a return to freedom of movement allowing EU citizens to live and work in the UK, and vice versa – viewed as unchecked immigration by Brexiters – but would also offer total freedom to trade without checks on standards of goods or customs forms, adding a potential 3-5% to GDP, according to the UKICE’s analysis.
The Swiss-style halfway house?
Switzerland is not a member of the EU but it struck a deal last year cementing its “frictionless access” to the single market, access to the EU’s electricity market, space programmes, Erasmus and the Digital Europe research programme, and participation in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
In exchange, Switzerland agreed to free movement of people and to pay €375m (£322m) a year into the EU’s economic and cohesion funds.
The EU has previously offered the UK a Swiss-style deal but it was rejected by Boris Johnson because it required regulatory alignment and free movement.
Join the European Economic Area
Joining Norway and Liechtenstein in the EEA could add 2-3% to growth but would mean joining the single market and the customs union, two of Starmer’s red lines, and accepting immigration of EU citizens again.
The single market brings with it four freedoms of movement – labour (people), capital (money), services and trade (goods).
Associate membership
Although many have reported that the EU’s offer to Canada was the first time associate membership has come up, it is not.
The EU can work expediently when the political need is there and three years ago mooted associate membership for Ukraine as a shortcut to the long accession process.
This could be an option that allows the UK a closer relationship than it currently has with the EU, with less requirement to cross previously stated red lines.
What is behind Burnham’s promise to redefine the UK’s relationship with Europe?
Labour already sees the relationship with the EU as a point of difference with the staunchly pro-Brexit Reform UK, but has felt nervous of handing Nigel Farage free political capital by suggesting Brexit could be reversed, or at the very least heavily watered down.
But sources say there is now a recognition in the Labour party that the offer to the public has got to be bigger than the current reset.
How long has Burnham got to set out a fresh Brexit review?
Time is short. Burnham has said he wants to have the conversation about the options over the next two months to coincide with the delayed EU-UK summit to be held in Brussels, perhaps at the end of November.
