Exit polls conducted by Manx Radio predict seven outgoing MHKs will lose their seats, three of whom are current members of the Council of Ministers.
They suggest outgoing Environment, Food and Agriculture Minister Clare Barber, Education, Sport and Culture Minister Daphne Caine, and Enterprise Minister Tim Johnston have lost their seats.
Former minister Rushen MHK Michelle Haywood, and deputy speaker of the Keys are also predicted to lose their seats.
In Ayre and Michael, the exit polls predict that Chief Minister Alfred Cannan is in a fight to retain his place in the House of Keys, with only 1% between him and the candidate in third.
Overall the exit polls suggest there will be 15 new MHKs, including eight women, down from 10 elected in 2021.
A third of the seats in the Keys are not being contested by outgoing MHKs, which means there is guaranteed to be eight new faces in Tynwald.
Arbory, Castletown and Malew: Kirrie Jenkins and too close to call between Jason Moorhouse and Steve Crowther.
Ayre and Michael: Stephen Broad and too close to call between Alfred Cannon and Phil Corkhill
Douglas Central: Peter Shimmin and Chris Thomas
Douglas East: Andy Saunders and too close to call between Joney Faragher and Dave Mackey
Douglas North: David Ashford and Damien Ciappelli
Garff: Richard Henthorne and Aishlinn Creer
Glenfaba and Peel: Katryna Baptist and Geoffrey Pugh
Middle: Jane Poole-Wilson and James Cochrane
Rushen: Michael Crowe and too close to call between Mark Kemp and Simon Williams
Among the issues dominating the election in 2026 were keeping young people on the island, the availability and cost of housing, wind farms, healthcare waiting times, and the impacts of spiralling expenses for small businesses.
Voting took place across the island from 08:00 BST on Thursday until the polls closed at 20:00.
Those who have been elected as a Member of the House of Keys (MHK) will be sworn in on Tuesday by the first and second deemsters.
The House of Keys will then sit on 13 October to nominate a chief minister and speaker of the House of Keys.
